tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10469742525620687622024-03-18T20:26:32.032+08:00用經濟學做眼睛雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comBlogger1317125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-20293248975565850422024-03-15T08:28:00.003+08:002024-03-15T08:28:49.672+08:00用現代博弈論觀察中美關係 (雷鼎鳴)<p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">2005<span lang="ZH-TW">年經濟諾貝爾獎得主舒林(</span>Thomas
Schelling<span lang="ZH-TW">)是一位研究國與國衝突的專家,他有個看法,對判斷今天中美博弈雙方的策略有何失誤很有幫助。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">舒林提出了這樣的一個場景:有位人士拿着槍,指着前面某人大喝一聲:「你若再走前一步,我便開槍。」舒林認為,這並不足夠阻嚇對方的前進,應該要再加一句:「你若退後,我便不會開槍。」才會真正有效。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美續打壓 「不准」華研高端芯片</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">為何舒林有此看法?我相信是那名被威脅的人士在作決定時,若無得到保證後退便沒事,可能便會懷疑是否後退也會被槍擊。既然進也死、退也</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">可能</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">死,不如跑上前試圖制服持槍者更上算。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">若用舒林的標準,美國近年對付中國的策略,可謂一塌糊塗。就用美國商務部長雷蒙多(</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">Gina Raimondo<span lang="ZH-TW">)去年訪華談判作例子。網上盛傳她「不准」中國研發高端芯片,這說法有點加油添醬,估計是她要求中國只發展中低端芯片,那麼美國或許可對中國解禁一些高端芯片。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">且不說華為在雷蒙多結束行程時,立刻宣布已自主造出擁有</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">7<span lang="ZH-TW">納米芯片的先進手機,狠狠地打了她的臉,雷蒙多的建議其實違反了舒林的原則。美國其實早便拿着槍時不時射向中國,現在中國有了機關槍可作反擊時,美國卻說你若丟掉機關槍,我便不會再向你射擊。中國當然不會這麼笨,自毁長城,放棄高端芯片的研發,因為她認為美國的承諾已不再可信。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">從前中美關係較為正常時,中美兩國倒是很願意遵守經濟規律,各自發揮自己的比較優勢。中國大量生產中低端芯片,支持着電視機、冰箱及汽車等的電子化;美國則研發高端芯片,賣給中國賺錢。既然美國有貨,中國也不願花錢自己研發。但從特朗普(</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">Donald Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">)年代開始,美國卻發了癲,違反自由貿易原則,不斷卡中國脖子。現在中國有能力反擊了,卻又叫她放棄。雷蒙多據說從前是學霸,但如此無智慧,看來美國政界高分低能之輩近年人數累積頗豐。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美戰略性含糊曾奏效 如今過時</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美國的貿易談判代表戴琪(</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">Katherine Tai<span lang="ZH-TW">),表現也與雷蒙多不相伯仲。特朗普年代,美國違反世貿組織對中國設立的關稅,戴琪不肯撤銷,以為可迫使中國多作讓步,這可打錯了算盤。中國沒有向前走,美國已經開槍了。以此作脅逼手段,中國只可能堅守陣地不作任何退讓。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美國過去的外交政策倒不見得是如此差勁。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">1962<span lang="ZH-TW">年古巴核彈危機出現,當時蘇聯運載核彈到古巴要對準美國,美國也一早在土耳其部署了核彈瞄準蘇聯。美國要蘇聯立刻停止運載核彈到古巴,雙方核戰一觸即發。當時美國總統甘迺迪(</span>John
F. Kennedy<span lang="ZH-TW">)與蘇聯領導人赫魯曉夫(</span>Nikita Khrushchev<span lang="ZH-TW">)通過了複雜的秘密談判,終於蘇聯撤走古巴的核彈,美國也答應撤走在土耳其的核彈,人類才逃過滅絕的命運。在談判過程中,雙方都對互相退讓的用詞及步驟小心翼翼,不是胡亂脅逼。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">在台灣問題上,美國過去用着一套與舒林的說法完全相反的策略,倒也曾經有效。美國採用的是戰略性含糊,不表態一旦中國收回台灣,美國會否出兵。這樣中國對美國的回應也會捉摸不定,不會輕易動武。美國也可向她的盟友交代,她會保護朋友。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">但這套策略今天恐怕過時了,用上述策略的一個先決條件是使用者本身有足夠強大的實力,把對手嚇得不敢隨便行動。現時中美實力對比出現了不少變化,例如,美國若派航母護台,便要面對一個現實,中國完全有能力以低成本的代價,用導彈擊沉前來的航母。艦上五千士兵陣亡是大事,影響更深遠的,是美國的盟國從此會懷疑美國的軍事力量是否支撑得住她的稱王稱霸。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">「繳槍不殺」 讓步換信得過承諾</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">要知道,美國的實力相當部分是建築在美元霸權之上,而美元霸權若無軍事霸權的加持,未必守得住。航母一沉,美元也不穩,代價太大了,這個險不能冒。倒是港元與美元掛鈎,也會被殃及池魚。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); margin: 0in 0in 15pt; outline: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">中共的領導層應沒有讀過舒林的博弈論,但中國人民自古以來積累過不少智慧。在中共的抗日戰爭及解放戰爭中,他們面對敵人時有句口號:「繳槍不殺」,而且是真能實踐到,就連國民黨的高級將領被俘後,也能保住性命,受到禮貌看待。這正合舒林之意,若對手讓步,可作信得過的承諾。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">報 </span><span style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">2024-3-15)</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;"> </span> </p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-86248924730683464152024-03-08T08:11:00.002+08:002024-03-08T08:11:50.185+08:00美國經濟隱藏甚麼危機?(雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">國務院總理李強的政府工作報告中,再次確認了</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2023<span lang="ZH-TW">年中國國內生產總值(</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">)實質增長率</span>5.2%<span lang="ZH-TW">,遠高於美國的</span>2.5%<span lang="ZH-TW">及歐元區的</span>0.5%<span lang="ZH-TW">。中國人均糧產</span>900<span lang="ZH-TW">多斤,通脹率則是</span>0.2%<span lang="ZH-TW">,這是相當理想的低通脹,而不是美國媒體所說的通縮。近年美國政客及媒體多次構建一個論述,說中國經濟正在步向衰敗,</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">永遠都追不上美國。上述數據,對美國那些政客及媒體的論述十分不方便。為何美國要弄出這種容易被實證推翻的論點?</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">年前我在美國的《外交事務》雜誌上看到篇文章,頗有意義。文章說美國應如此宣傳,目的是使歐洲及其他美國要爭取的國家不要跟錯大佬,跟中國沒有前途,緊跟美國才是安全最佳保證。這是衰落的帝國典型的思維,美國有些人有此想法並不奇怪。但我想深一層,此種脫離實況、自我吹噓貶損他人的宣傳,尚有美國不想別人注意的「難言之隱」,這要從美國自己的經濟現況說起。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美急劇加息推高滙率 令</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">「好看」</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">表面上美國經濟似仍穩健,她的</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">增長率遠高於歐元區,美元滙率過去兩年又大升,科技上有些領域,如人工智能亦時有大放異彩。在與中國經濟競爭方面,</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">、</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">年前按市場滙率計算,中國</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">最高達到美國的</span>75%<span lang="ZH-TW">左右,但去年則只是</span>64%<span lang="ZH-TW">。為何中國實質</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">增長一直高於美國,兩國</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">差距不縮窄反而擴大?說穿了一文不值,美國只是用急劇加息的方法從國外吸錢,人為地推高滙率,從而使她的</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">好看一點。但我們若把美國高通脹及中國低通脹的實況考慮在內,用購買力平價計算,中國</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">已等同</span>35<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元,比美國高出大約</span>28%<span lang="ZH-TW">。上述購買力平價計算所用的物價,背後假設美國物價大約是中國的兩倍。我常在中美兩地跑,據我觀察,在普通的民生消費方面,美國的物價近年已升至遠遠不止中國的兩倍,所以說中國</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">比美國高出</span>28%<span lang="ZH-TW">,可能還是低估了。但美國科技發達,經濟尚不可視之為處於崩潰之邊緣。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">巨債天文數字增長 還錢成疑</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">對美國造成更大困擾的是她欠下的巨債,有兩類欠債是我們要注意的,一是政府的欠債,二是美國政府及民間欠下外國的外債。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">據美國財政部的數據,美國政府在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2023<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>9<span lang="ZH-TW">月共欠下</span>34<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元的公債,比</span>12<span lang="ZH-TW">個月之前增加了</span>2.58<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元,增幅</span>8.21%<span lang="ZH-TW">,遠超</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">增長率。本來欠債率高並不一定構成風險,例如新加坡的欠債佔</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的比例遠高於美國,但新加坡財政卻是穩健的。原因是新加坡政府借來的錢是用來投資的,有實物及回報支持,美國的基本上用來花霍,用掉了便沒有了。而且看着這些巨債每年以天文數字增長,哪能不使人懷疑其還錢能力?</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">我們若細看美國政府開支的組成,更容易明白她前景不妙。美國政府</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2023<span lang="ZH-TW">年開支</span>6.1<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元,收入</span>4.4<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元,開支主要是退休養老、醫療、國防及不斷增加的利息開支,這些都是只會增加不會減少的開支。美國有智庫算過,光是退休養老的承諾,已等於將來要付出</span>47.7<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元。醫療開支上的承諾更是達到</span>64.29<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元,而我們又知道,美國的人均醫療成本每年是</span>12,555<span lang="ZH-TW">美元,遠高於歐盟的</span>6,414<span lang="ZH-TW">美元,但效率甚差,美國人均壽命只得</span>76<span lang="ZH-TW">歲,比內地的</span>78<span lang="ZH-TW">歲還要低。對着現在的債及將來增長更多的債,理財者怎能不發愁?</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">開支外債龐大 製造業佔比低</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國的外債一樣龐大,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2023<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>9<span lang="ZH-TW">月的官方數字是</span>25.65<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元。為何欠下外國這麼多?是因為美國每年的產出低於她的總消耗,要靠外國輸血。一旦外國不買她的帳,美國便要靠大幅加息來維持門面,但這無異於飲鴆止渴,將來利息負擔更沉重。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">要繼續借錢才能維持其花霍,但要別人願意借出,卻必須讓人有信心,這便要美國能充撑門面才能做到。美國經濟結構有一大缺陷,便是製造業佔比甚低。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">主要靠售賣虛擬服務去賺錢,例如開動印鈔機提供各國都可使用的鈔票,這嚴格來說,也是服務業之一,且是無本生意,印了錢便買到東西。又例如美國國防開支龐大,她可自稱為其他國家提供「保護」,別人不交保護費,不聽她的,便可推翻別人的國家。不過,若其他國家不再信任美元,或不再同意需要美國的「保護」,那麼此等服務便一文不值,美國的</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">便有崩塌危機。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國當然要防止別人不再信任或畏懼她,最大的挑戰便是其他國家認為有中國在,便可不用購買美國的「服務」,維持金融體制不用靠美國,美國也提供不了安全,如此一來,問題便大了。不過,沒有實質產出的虛擬經濟,要靠武力及美元霸權去维持,終也會被打回原形。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin-top: 0in;"><span style="color: #212529; font-family: STSong; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei UI";">(<span lang="ZH-CN">經濟日報
</span>2024-3-8)</span><span style="color: #212529; font-family: STSong; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-91210414729370422024-03-01T07:58:00.002+08:002024-03-01T07:58:34.086+08:00點評財政預算案 (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">每年的財政預算案都是香港社會的頭等大事,它是香港經濟形勢一個階段性的總結,也是發放未來經濟策略的主要平台。它的內容,也可視為香港集體智慧的體現,雖然此種智慧也不一定都是對的。大多數港人所關注的,可能較集中在有無糖可派,差餉有否減免,或樓市有否撤辣等與民生息息相關的地方。經濟學家注意的焦點卻十分不同,他們會較重視長遠的形勢,及政府的經濟政策是否有效。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">若我們把注意力放在大形勢方面,有</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">點是特別突出的,亦需要我們研判有無足夠的政策去應對這些形勢。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">人口老化仍未受控 須審慎理財</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">第一種香港要面對的形勢是人口老化。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">2021<span lang="ZH-TW">年港人年齡中位數是</span>46.3<span lang="ZH-TW">歲,到了</span>2046<span lang="ZH-TW">年,更估計可達</span>53.4<span lang="ZH-TW">歲。人口老化可帶來福利、醫療等開支的大幅上升,對財政構成巨大壓力。此種後果卻並非今天才知道,</span>2013<span lang="ZH-TW">年政府便早已成立了一個「長遠財政計劃工作小組」去研判此事。結論是政府必須審慎理財,壓縮開支,否則結構性財赤難以避免,政府很快便會用光儲備,並欠下巨債。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">現時控制人口老化帶來的財困成績如何?有些數字還是較具驚嚇力的,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">1997/98<span lang="ZH-TW">年至</span>2023/24<span lang="ZH-TW">年,政府總收入共上升了</span>128%<span lang="ZH-TW">,但總開支的增幅卻是</span>292%<span lang="ZH-TW">!這顯然是不能持續下去的。今年赤字已非最惡劣,但赤字也高達</span>1,016<span lang="ZH-TW">億,若非過去香港儲了不少家底,我們不會仍擁有</span>7,332<span lang="ZH-TW">億的儲備。未來幾年,赤字仍會繼續,而且公共開支佔</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的比重,今年還會高達</span>26.3%<span lang="ZH-TW">。這與</span>20<span lang="ZH-TW">多年前此等開支只佔</span>GDP
15%<span lang="ZH-TW">以下,是完全另一個世界。人口老化帶來的開支增加,仍未受控。香港政府的理財,不但應向控制開支傾斜,而且要開源節流。開支方面也應減少用掉了便沒有了的消費性開支,增加投資性將來可賺到錢的開支。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">地緣政治威脅 宜減依賴西方</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">第二種形勢是地緣政治。在這方面香港的環境好壞參半,好的是中國經濟發展迅速,世界多個國家要與中國增強經貿關係,香港大有新的發展機遇。壞的是美國及部分西方國家還有着冷戰思維,遏制香港金融與經貿發展也成為了她們的政策選項。此等局面,威脅着香港的聯繫滙率,全球的炒家雖看不到誰有能力衝擊到港元,但若是美國政府以國家之力出手,香港也會有大麻煩。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">最好的回應之道是攻守兼備,減低對西方國家的依賴,改為與非西方國家建立新的經濟關係。預算案中提到</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">mBridge<span lang="ZH-TW">(多種央行數碼貨幣跨境網絡),據我所知,是要在美元以外建立一國際收支系統。現在有內地、香港、泰國、阿聯酋參與,待系統成熟後,還有多個國家會加入。此外,香港的離岸人民幣資金池,雖只有</span>1<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億人民幣的存款,不算太多,但將來還有很大的發展空間,對港的金融業會有幫助。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">另外,香港對中東市場十分重視,已有追蹤沙特阿拉伯股票的指數基金,亦將快會有香港股票指數基金給中東人民投資。此類措施,是回應世界經濟重心東移的重要步驟。但我們也應提防美國不會願意放棄美元霸權,一丁點的對美元地位的挑戰都會引來報復,香港不能不清醒一點,更加強化與美元世界以外的國家來往。所謂的盛事經濟,其直接的經濟效益或許有限,但卻可起到唱好香港、唱旺香港,使多些國家人民能親身體驗香港,從而知道西方媒體唱衰香港的惡劣。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">港人及早擁抱新科技 抓緊商機</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">第三種形勢是新科技的發展。新科技的進步,正在深刻地改變着世界,也帶來多方面的挑戰。我們早點擁抱新科技,可及早發現它帶來的商機,若不理會,港人將來的就業也會出現嚴峻的問題。預算案中報告已有</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">10<span lang="ZH-TW">萬以上的高才抵達香港,大多數已找到工作,月薪中位數是</span>5<span lang="ZH-TW">萬元左右,這說明發展高科技所需的人才,局面已漸被打開。預算案也重點報告,會以百億計的撥款,搞生命健康研究院及其他科技研究基金的配對。北部都會區的建設,更是為高科技發展提供土地支援的重要部署。港人也應自我檢視,看看自己或子女有否融入高科技社會的準備。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">預算案也有一些民生措施,樓市撤辣,早應實施,現在是太晚了,但撤還是比不撤要好。至於那</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">1,200<span lang="ZH-TW">億債券,從政府理財角度而言,實無需要。政府仍有不少儲備,為何還要去借錢付利息?不過,對於市民,這些政府債券,卻可提供安全及可能比銀行利率更高的投資,應會受到歡迎。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><picture class="image-gallery-img" style="cursor: pointer;"></picture><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2024-3-1)</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-27431940495199472992024-02-23T07:36:00.001+08:002024-02-23T07:36:41.581+08:00假如特朗普再當選總統 (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">今年</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">11<span lang="ZH-TW">月美國便會再選總統,雖然這距今仍有漫長的</span>9<span lang="ZH-TW">個月,政治上甚麼事情都可能發生,但按目前走勢看來,我相信特朗普(</span>Donald Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">)起碼有</span>8<span lang="ZH-TW">、</span>9<span lang="ZH-TW">成機會勝出。這並非特朗普有甚麼過人之處,而是拜登(</span>Joe Biden<span lang="ZH-TW">)太老太過不濟。特朗普再當上總統,已非單純是假設性的問題,而是大有可能成為人人都要面對的現實。這對美國國內外都有深刻的影響,不可不早作準備。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">倘重入主白宮 恐加速美衰落</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">先談對美國國內的影響。特朗普乘着民粹主義之勢而崛起,本身有大量支持者擁護。他們對美國近年左翼自由主義思潮的泛起大感不滿,事事都講求政治正確更使他們不耐煩。這本來可使美國人的思潮更多元化,互相制衡,有其好處。但可惜特朗普此人瘋瘋癲癲,既霸道又無知,他若再當上總統,只會加速美國的衰落。他在任時言論常有駭人聽聞之處,例如他曾以為把消毒水注入體內便可殺死新冠病毒,又或因陽光可殺病毒,他建議要研究如何把強光在體內照亮。此等言論出自市井匹夫尚可,但出自堂堂總統口中,美國人民怎能不羞慚無地自容?</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">在對外政策上,他以「美國優先」為藉口,得罪無數盟友;對中國則發動貿易戰,害人害己。在貿易戰之初,經濟學界早已知道這不會有贏家,美國人若不能控制其揮霍的習性,加重關稅根本不會減少美國對中國的貿赤。果不期然,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2017<span lang="ZH-TW">年中國對美貿易盈餘</span>2,758<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元,貿易戰開始後的</span>2020<span lang="ZH-TW">年是</span>3,165<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元,</span>2022<span lang="ZH-TW">年更上升至</span>4,006<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元!特朗普的政策何其失敗!美國人才濟濟,不過特朗普的性格,卻使有識之士不是被炒,便是自行離開,身邊只剩下一批別有用心或是唯唯諾諾之輩,中國古代奸臣與昏君共舞之圖像,竟在白宮中重現。若他再當選,證明美國的制度根本無法自我改正,美國自稱為民主燈塔,但塔內之燈正被熄滅,更不會被國際社會尊敬。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">或停援烏止戰 責任全推拜登</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">在對外關係上,特朗普倒可能有重大「貢獻」。他說上任後可</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">24<span lang="ZH-TW">小時內結束俄烏戰爭,這倒不算吹牛。俄烏戰爭至今,烏克蘭無可能戰勝已成定局。美國從中雖曾因售賣天然氣到歐洲而得嘗一些甜頭,但隨着烏方戰事失利,而北約又不能輸,繼續戰鬥只會構成北約諸國沉重的財政負擔。現在北約撒手不管會非常沒面子,但若特朗普上台,他則大可把責任一股腦兒推到拜登身上,並且立刻停止對烏方的援助。他自己毫髮無損,還可以和平使者自居,與普京(</span>Vladimir
Putin<span lang="ZH-TW">)握手言歡,再找人提名他競逐諾貝爾和平獎,雖然不會得獎,但也可自吹一會。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">對於北約其他成員,他一向不假以辭色,亦曾表示若歐洲諸國不交北約的「會費」,美國便不會為歐洲提供軍事保護。特朗普若當選,歐洲諸國各有得失。北約東擴以致俄羅斯反擊,已是北約一大錯誤政策,歐洲諸國也因此錯誤而損失甚大。既然特朗普可通過把責任推給拜登而脫身,法、德等國亦可如法炮製,說美國背信棄義,烏克蘭頹勢已成,再提供援助也只是燒錢,一樣可乘機拋棄烏克蘭。美國要歐洲的北約成員交軍費,法、德等大國也可不理特朗普,把錢用在獨立於北約的軍隊之上。不過,歐洲多國素有恐俄傳統,俄國面積</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">48<span lang="ZH-TW">倍大於德國,人口近兩倍,怎會不懼?一些小國如愛沙尼亞等,人口只得幾百萬,更會因俄羅斯戰勝而十分擔心。歐洲也許會因特朗普不再玩下去而出現不穩。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">在以色列及中東的問題上,特朗普似無特別背景要偏幫以色列。反之,猶太人控制的美國傳媒,對特朗普一向不友善,冷嘲熱諷無日無之,特朗普會否給以色列面子,值得懷疑。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">嫌出招未夠辣 制裁華料升級</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">對中國的政策也會是特朗普的難題,貿易戰及科技戰等對中國的制裁始自特朗普年代,拜登不但沒有取消,還大幅擴大。現時美國對華政策仍處於一種兩敗俱傷的境界,特朗普會如何處理?除非有重大利益,他不會撤掉這些制裁,但拜登加重版的制裁也取不到好處。特朗普較可能的取態是埋怨拜登團隊能力低劣,出招不夠辣,他大有機會把對華制裁再升級。由此可見,特朗普當總統,中美關係也不易改善,但因特朗普會得罪不少盟友,中國在歐洲的形勢會更寬廣。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">特朗普沒有發動過戰爭,在美國總統中,他是較罕有的不願打仗的一人,原因可能是他認為這是蝕本生意。他也曾表示過,台灣離美國太遠,離中國太近,言下之意,似乎對台灣問題並不熱衷。美國政客希望以台灣亂局來為中國製造麻煩,他們能否說服特朗普對台問題更加肉緊,不得而知。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2024-2-23)</span><span style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-21762800914956531742024-02-16T10:16:00.002+08:002024-03-01T08:19:56.688+08:00美斯事件的迷局 (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">國際邁阿密到港參與表演賽,從機場歡迎儀式時球員不肯配合,到阿根廷球王美斯自稱不舒服不肯下場,又黑面迴避拍照,接着在日本美斯又生龍活虎、神情愉悅地參加球賽,使香港球迷痛罵美斯之聲遠蓋支持之聲。內地球迷接着發力,美斯「脫粉」無數,杭州還終止了原本</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">月份對阿根廷球隊的邀約。所用的理由「鑑於眾所周知的原因」,迅速成為潮語,讀者以後遭人拒絕時聽到這理由,不用驚訝。有人估計,美斯在中國的廣告損失,每年可能達</span>6,000<span lang="ZH-TW">萬元人民幣。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">這事件涉及商業利益、個人意氣、中港關係、中美博弈,各種因素糾纏在一起,倒也值得我們拆解一下。美斯為何這樣做,有多種理論,這裏只討論</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">種。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">大可能 政治陰謀論概率低</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第一種理論是政治陰謀論,暗指美國反華的政治勢力無孔不入,香港既是美國打擊的對象,多位官員正遭美國政府的制裁,所以吩咐到了美國賺錢的美斯不能為敵張目,與香港官員握手拍照更要避之則吉。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">我不喜歡陰謀論,但不敢排除這種可能性;不過,我認為概率很低。美斯是阿根廷人,也許正在申請美國的居留權,但他這類國際巨星,到甚麼地方都十分容易,美國及阿根廷政府都不易控制他。更重要的是,除非這些政府十分愚蠢,否則用如此迂迴曲折的方法去打擊香港,十分不智。中阿關係仍屬正常,阿根廷新上任的總統米萊伊雖然是民粹主義者,但不大可能做出此等事。至於美國,她要打擊的是政府,上策是不斷拉攏人民,春節期間,美國總統拜登還找人到白宮舞獅助興,便是此意。體育明星是很好的待而用之的工具,但卻是在爭取別國人民好感時用,而不是要用來製造反感。美國政壇反華雖陰風陣陣,但應不至如此愚蠢,打一場對己不利的戰役。況且一旦美斯不聽指揮,敢於爆料,美國政府如何自處?</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第二種理論是美斯與球隊班主碧咸不和,不滿自己及朋友在港表演分得的錢太少,所以採取不合作態度。是否如此,我們外人難以得知,但觀乎碧咸當天努力打圓場,接着又不隨隊飛往日本,可見此理論並非毫無根據。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第三種理論是美斯不懂香港,認為她只是一個</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">700<span lang="ZH-TW">萬人的市場,就算發碧咸脾氣,得罪香港球迷也沒有甚麼大不了。我同意北京與香港著名評論人兔主席的觀點,美斯不明白香港是中國的一部分,得罪了香港球迷便等於得罪了全中國,所以美斯失去的,不只是</span>700<span lang="ZH-TW">萬人的市場,而是</span>14<span lang="ZH-TW">億人的市場。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">在華失市場 顯美斯不懂世局</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">幾天,或甚至幾小時的失控,換來的損失有多大?有人估計,美斯在中國失去的廣告等收入,每年可能有</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">6,000<span lang="ZH-TW">萬元人民幣,倘若屬實,的確不少,反映美斯對世局的認識不足及情商不高。但就算這樣,他便很傷嗎?</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">市場中早已有各種對美斯身價的估算,有一種估算是他在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2022<span lang="ZH-TW">年底時,身家累積了約</span>6.5<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元。他於</span>2023<span lang="ZH-TW">年在球會的收入,據德國網站「轉會市場」數據,是</span>1.35<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元,屈居在葡萄牙球星</span>C<span lang="ZH-TW">朗拿度的</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元之下,全球排第二。假設這些估計大致準確,那麼每年失掉的</span>6,000<span lang="ZH-TW">萬元人民幣,大約稍多於他資產淨值的</span>1%<span lang="ZH-TW">,對他而言,不算很傷。他在美國超級碗決賽中分半鐘的廣告收益便有近億港元,但我以己度人,若我的資產淨值突然少了</span>1%<span lang="ZH-TW">,我也會十分肉痛。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">中國內地的反應才是值得留意。中央政府當然不會為此等小事正式表態,但因為成了幾乎全民皆怒的事件,民間及地方政府總會有些反應。比賽在香港舉行,內地為何有如此強烈反應?皆因感情上及策略上都視得罪香港為得罪全國人民,必須還擊,而不是讓香港受人欺凌。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">中國實力增 各界須更新認識</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">此種策略是有效的,但只有強國才做得到。美國過去一直奉行此策,若在哪個國家有美國人被挾持,她的航空母艦便隨時殺到,這策略也使其他國家不敢輕言得罪美國。隨着中國的經濟、政治、軍事力量發展起來,中國一樣有實力這樣做,世界各地的政府與組織,也需要更新其對中國</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-ascii-font-family: STSong; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: DengXian; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: STSong; mso-ligatures: none;">的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">認識,美斯事件正是對他們的一個提醒。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2024-2-16)</span><span style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-38793719996049208532024-02-09T08:38:00.002+08:002024-02-09T08:38:43.326+08:0023條立法:治亂世用重典 (雷鼎鳴)<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">23<span lang="ZH-TW">條立法的程序,終於啟動。</span>1<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>30<span lang="ZH-TW">日保安局發布了「維護國家安全:《基本法》第二十三條立法公眾諮詢文件」,當中把原本基本法中列明的七宗罪歸納為五宗罪,在一個月內向公眾收集意見。如無意外,諮詢文件中提出的方案,今年底以前便會成為正式法律。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">此事拖了二十多年,亦曾掀起過軒然大波,可算是香港當代史中的頭等大事。我沒見過相關的統計數據,不知支持者與反對者的人數在過去二十多年中有無此消彼長,但相信今天的支持者比當年更堅決,反對者也更欲去之而後快,只是們已無力左右大局矣。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">2002<span lang="ZH-TW">、</span>03<span lang="ZH-TW">年初推</span>23<span lang="ZH-TW">條時,社會很可能並無強烈共識,認為在香港可搞出甚麼損害國家安全之事,立此法的目的在於盡起憲制責任,防患於未然,而不是有感於國家安全受到了甚麼嚴重威脅。況且港人一向慣於散漫,國家意識在一部分人心中並不強烈,所以對此法的公眾支持度或許並不足夠。我一向崇尚自由,喜歡無拘無束的生活,若立此法,雖然不大可能會誤蹈法網,但生活言行中總會付出點失去部分自由的代價,既然得益不明顯,難免要問為何要付此代價?</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">經過了超過</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">20<span lang="ZH-TW">年,情勢已大起變化。早在</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">年前佔中尚未發生時,我在一個公開的場合中已表明支持</span>23<span lang="ZH-TW">條立法,此事引起《蘋果》的不滿,用了半版自編的「報道」亂罵一通,但其記者以後還是常要找我評論諸事,我對其編採的客觀性已失去信心,便只有叫記者通知其編輯,我不會再接受其訪問。在這</span>20<span lang="ZH-TW">年中,究竟出了甚麼變化,以致</span>23<span lang="ZH-TW">條從「可以等一等」變為「事不宜遲」?我認為有三大變化。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">中美關係變化 港須增防禦力</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">第一是中美關係。二十多年前,美國國內並非沒有政客欲將中國的經濟與軍事力量扼殺於萌芽,但其時中國輸出了大量價廉物美的消費品,美國是受惠者,其通脹有效地被降低。今天中國亦有繼續輸出消費品,美國同樣受惠,但中國不少的高科技產品已經可與美國爭一日之長短,且兩國之間經濟差距迅速收窄,這種情勢使美國陷入修昔底德陷阱的長期恐懼與仇視中,不但顛覆中國之心暴露,而且早已付諸行動。經歷過佔中與黑暴,又留意近年國際形勢的港人,除了頭腦閉塞者外,都可看得一清二楚。從前美國或許不至於大規模滲透香港,策動有損中國國家安全之事,但過去一段時期,這恐怕抵賴不了。既有事實先例,沒有</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">23<span lang="ZH-TW">條本地立法,香港的防禦力便有所欠缺了。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">第二是香港的公眾教育頗為失敗,孕育出一大批觀察力、獨立思考力與智慧皆缺的黑暴分子,這些人容易被有心人煽動,利用了香港寬鬆自由的社會環境,有風使盡</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">巾</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">里</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">,行為無度失控,在黑暴期間其顯示的破壞力,使守法的港人大開眼界。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">23<span lang="ZH-TW">條立了法後,他們的自由會受到約束,損害國家安全的行為會受到較大的掣肘,但其他本來便守</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">法的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">人,自由總也會有點受損。這情況有點像</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">911<span lang="ZH-TW">以後,世界各國機場的保安都會加強,為旅客帶來不便,但我們總不能埋怨執法者或機場保安人員,要負起責任者,顯然是施過襲擊的恐怖分子。由此論斷,對</span>23<span lang="ZH-TW">條感到不便的人,冤有頭債有主,是不理會國家與人民安全的黑暴分子的長期搗亂破壞,才迫使我們要事事提高警覺,不能過着漫不經心得過且過的生活。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">第三是犯罪行為往往會形成動態經濟學中的多均衡點模式。在犯案率很低的大環境下,就算政府不花費大資源去打擊損害國家安全的罪行,會犯此罪的人也很少,因為無人敢犯,你卻去犯,你便會顯得突兀,一下子便被認出而伏法,所以很少人敢於造次。但倘若叛國分子因環境太寬鬆而廣泛滋長了起來,犯罪者眾多,社會就算用上大量資源也不易檢控犯罪分子,此種情況,香港幾年前已親歷過。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">霹靂手段 挖出隱藏犯罪分子</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">有此態勢出現後,解救之道是治亂世用重典,亦即大力增加犯罪者犯罪的機會成本,把刑罰加重,並用更多資源調查及檢控黑暴分子,使他們知道,若有犯罪,其被罰的概率會大幅提高,罰則也會更重。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">諮詢文件中確有一些建議是動真格的,例如「隱匿叛國」便頗辣。對叛國者的行為知情不報會犯法,這與源自商朝,被墨子系統化、商鞅實踐推行的「連坐法」有共通之處,但也不盡相同,只要把知道的叛國分子檢舉出來,便不會被株連。也許霹靂手段過後,隱藏的犯罪分子被挖出,軟對抗無疾而終,便不用花太多資源去為</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">23<span lang="ZH-TW">條執法。</span></span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">報 </span><span style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">2024-2-9)</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"> </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;"> </span> </p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-63032272971177734562024-02-02T07:37:00.000+08:002024-02-02T07:37:04.546+08:00西方民主體制的新七宗罪 (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">上周論及西方民主體制有「七宗罪」:一是競選者靠演技做</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">show<span lang="ZH-TW">上位多於靠管治能力;二是億萬人中選出的往往是怪胎,望之不似人君;三是登上大寶的人誠信道德常出問題,以致人民對「政客」或</span>politician<span lang="ZH-TW">一詞常抱負面觀感;四是小集團在此制度下,頗能騎劫總體利益;五是民粹主義者常可靠此制度上位,遺害人間;六是對權力和平轉移的保證已經失效;七是選舉結果可被策略性操控,不一定能反映真實民意。此文寫後再思想,意猶未了,西方民主體制近年暴露出的問題,遠不止上述「七宗罪」,我屈指一數,可另加上一批「新七宗罪」。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">不和平不友善 政客無誠信</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">「七宗罪」及「新七宗罪」,都頗有名堂。「七宗罪」本是天主教在中世紀時訂定的七種罪惡來源,例如「傲慢」、「嫉妒」等。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">十多年前有朋友邀請我參加一環保經濟的座談會,在場有位神父指出,在現代社會有「新七宗罪」,聽他演繹原來在跨國公司任職或隨地拋棄紙屑都是犯上了「新七宗罪」,聽後大感不少港人都罪大惡極,還好尚未惡貫滿盈。我孤陋寡聞,當時對「新七宗罪」聞所未聞。查一查資料,原來是</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2008<span lang="ZH-TW">年教廷為了追上現代社會的新環境,頒令了「新七宗罪」,包括基因改造、人體實驗、環境污染、社會不公、令人貧困、斂財無度、販賣吸毒。至於在跨國公司任職或丟棄紙屑為何如此大罪,我估計是被上綱上綫為等同斂財無度或社會不公及環境污染了。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">為防對西方民主體制的缺點上綱上綫,或吹毛求疪,我們對其評價要有些標準。最正確的標準是找出西方民主體制所產生的影響是否符合我們的核心價值觀。內地宣傳</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">12<span lang="ZH-TW">種國民應有的價值觀,我取其</span>6<span lang="ZH-TW">種,再加上一種并無爭議性的,但卻發現西方民主體制竟都不符合這些價值觀,堪稱罪惡深重。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第一種價值觀是和平。這不在內地羅列的核心價值觀之內,但可肯定絕大部分中國與世界人民愛好和平。自稱為民主燈塔的美國及其主導的北約,到處打仗侵略。美國開國</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">248<span lang="ZH-TW">年以來,打仗打了</span>232<span lang="ZH-TW">年,堪稱歷史上最好戰的國家。西方民主體制選出的人如此違反和平這一價值觀,此為「新七宗罪」的第一罪,殆無異議。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第二種價值觀是友善。看看美國及北約其他成員,又或加上「五眼聯盟」等情報間諜組織,對別國常殺氣騰騰,又或忙於刺探別國的情報,與友善怎扯也扯不上關係。這是第二宗罪。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第三種價值觀是和諧。中國文化講求天人合一,追求社會和諧。縱觀西方國家,哪來和諧?社會撕裂不說,對互利共贏的國際貿易也看不順眼,非要搞沒有贏家的貿易戰不可,如何和諧?此乃第三罪。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">增幅 低於世界平均水平</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第四種價值觀是誠信。靠西方民主選舉上台的政客有誠信嗎?</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">小</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">布殊政府把小瓶洗衣粉謊稱是伊拉克擁有大殺傷力武器的證據,何來誠信?美國政客對香港黑暴的胡亂論述,自欺欺人,港人已然領教過。此體制未能衍生誠信,使人遺憾。此第四罪也。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第五種價值觀是富強。表面看來,西方民主國家比其他國家富裕,但她們的財富在歷史上相當大程度地是建立在掠奪殖民地資源所建立,不甚馨香。況且這些國家近年</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">增長率低於世界平均,富強離她們愈來愈遠。可稱之為第五宗罪。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">不愛國違民意 制度問題湧現</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第六種價值觀是愛國。本來西方國家人民大都十分愛國,這是好事。不過,她們經由民主選舉選出的政客,對別的國家的人民愛國卻常抱負面態度,其宣傳機器發放的信息往往對別國諸多批評,甚至鼓吹推翻別國政府。努力使別國人民不愛其國,對愛國這一價值觀也是在踩紅綫了。第六宗罪可能也犯上了。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第七種價值觀是民主。西方民主選舉體制是形式上的民主,國家領導人通過一人一票的選舉產生。但民主真正的意義是人民是主人,政府要為人民服務。但從西方國家選舉的過程及結果看,利益集團對政策的影響深遠,政府所推政策往往違反民意,不利人民。若說西方形式主義的民主體制完全違反民主的初心,可能是過火,但此體制不能保證勝選者會為人民服務,則彰彰明甚。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">名實不副,此第七宗罪。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美籍日本學者福山曾著書《歷史的終結》,認為西方的民主體制已經相當完美,歷史可到此為止。但近數十年此制度出現了大量問題,甚麼才是最適合不同國家的制度,我們不易找到答案,還須社會精英繼續思考。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2024-2-2)</span><span style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-54671847291065647412024-01-26T07:47:00.002+08:002024-01-26T07:47:48.755+08:00西方形式主義民主的七宗罪 (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">我崇尚自由,但對西方形式主義的民主選舉制度數十年來一向懷疑。近年此種制度的缺陷日漸顯露,此種懷疑更變成信念。美國下一屆總統選戰已經開始,如無</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">重大</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">意外,特朗普重回白宮的概率遠高於一半,就算他失敗,認知能力已出現問題的拜登繼續留任,也難免使未來的歷史學家問句「這一代的美國究竟中了甚麼邪?」</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">兩周前到台北觀選,一樣可見到此種制度衰象已呈。美國以為自己是民主制度燈塔,兩年後美國建國便達</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">250<span lang="ZH-TW">年,時間與中國不少朝代的長短已然接近。朝代有興衰,國家制度是否也會如此?</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">我總結了一下,西方形式主義民主早已不配站在道德高地,蓋因其犯上了「七宗罪」。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">選舉機制缺陷顯露 靠演技包裝</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第一宗罪是決定選舉結果的因素,競選者的演戲及包裝能力,遠大於其人是否真有治理及領導能力。看看哪一位能勝出的總統不是能言善辯(當然有幕僚替其寫演辭)?在電視上哪一位不是七情上面?但到了上任後,卻往往原形畢露。特朗普狀若瘋子,世人已領教過。拜登老態龍鍾,但上台演講時卻總要扮青春死撑着小跑,政策及演辭又充滿虛偽與雙重標準。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">在台灣,民進黨貪腐,國民黨性好內鬥爭權,致使不少年輕選民轉向柯文哲,但此君在台北當市長毫無建樹,其管治能力不足已暴露無遺,以致他在台北這大本營的得票率還低於其他地方。但這些人上位靠甚麼?是演技與包裝</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第二宗罪是第一宗罪的結果,選出來的人往往十分不妥。尼克遜當年推動中美建交有功,但後來卻被美國人視為戰犯與大話精。克林頓捲入性醜聞,小布殊無能,但卻敢於偽造證據,說伊拉克有大殺傷力武器,從而滅人領袖,誅殺別國人民。至於特朗普及拜登何等德性,只要不是有眼無珠的,皆可看清。不過,這些人全都登上大寶。我們不能不問</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美國</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">億多人口,人才輩出,人傑地靈,為何揀來揀去,卻只能找出這些料子,這個選拔機制肯定出了問題!</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">虛偽</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">+<span lang="ZH-TW">雙重標準 利益集團擴張</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第三宗罪是第二宗罪的延伸。既然上位是靠做</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">show<span lang="ZH-TW">演戲,其人的誠信道德能力便值得懷疑。那麼虛偽與雙重標準,我們大可見怪不怪。翻查好一點的字典,「政客」一詞及「</span>Politician<span lang="ZH-TW">」都含有貶義,這並非無緣無故,而是在西方實踐其形式主義民主數百年後,人民對政客的虛偽所得的印象觀感。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第四宗罪是此制度能為利益集團提供擴張的土壤,使它們凌駕了社會總體利益。已故經濟學大師奧爾森(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Mancur Olson<span lang="ZH-TW">)曾著有一書《國家興亡》(</span>The
Rise and Decline of Nations<span lang="ZH-TW">),當中論證了在西方社會中,小圈子利益集團,因為人數少,利益集中,願意動用較多資源游說政府立法或用政策向它們利益傾斜。而社會中其他人因這些利益團體細小,根本不會注意它們的行動。久而久之,多種小圈子團體所爭取到的改變,加起來便足以使社會的總體發展遇上各種阻力,舉步維艱。舉個例子,在幾年前香港土地供應的辯論及諮詢中,我們發現香港有個周公島,因多年前出現過一種蜥蜴較為罕見,所以</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">早已立了法</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">不能填海不能發展。此種障礙,可能為香港的土地發展耗廢掉數以百億的成本。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">混淆民粹過渡困難 賽果可操控</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第五宗罪是容易與民粹主義混淆。香港黑暴期間,對社會破壞力十足的民粹主義分子肆虐長達七、八年,他們大都自稱爭取民主,以此為外衣,但更重要的是立法會也有不少民粹議員是通過一人一票選進去的。就算是英國的脫歐公投及美國的選舉,民粹主義的影子清楚可見。這與希特拉靠民粹上台歷史不遑多讓,足證形式主義的選舉對民粹主義並無防禦力。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第六宗罪是權力的和平過渡已沒有保證。本來西方的這套制度過去有個好處,誰上台靠和平投票決定,輸的一方不能反對。但</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">年前特朗普敗選後,「驕傲男孩」等團體闖進國會山莊大搞破壞,已使我們對權力轉移是否能和平大失信心。不少人甚至斷言,若特朗普今次再敗選,美國會有暴亂。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第七宗罪是選舉結果完全可操控,以致選舉結果並不一定能反映選民的真實意見。此種情況在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">50<span lang="ZH-TW">多年前已有數理經濟學家用鐵一般的邏輯證明了任何選舉機制,無論如何設計,都可被操控。我過去曾多次撰文討論,不贅。其實,今次台灣選舉中,民進黨只取得</span>40%<span lang="ZH-TW">的票,反民進黨的票被</span></span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: "PMingLiU-ExtB",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU-ExtB; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">𠝹</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">開為兩部分,也是他們失利的原因。民進黨的繼續執政,也不一定反映到民意。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 3.75pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(經濟日報</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> 2024-1-26<span lang="ZH-CN">)</span></span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-51481832778448141742024-01-19T07:52:00.003+08:002024-01-19T07:53:01.944+08:00台灣大選後的台海形勢 (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">上周我與朋友組團到台北觀察選舉,陸委會有位副主委及一位處長接待了我們。我們也拜訪了國民黨、民進黨與民眾黨,並與他們座談選舉大勢。陸委會的工作人員一如既往的禮貌客氣,在其總部旁邊一家米芝蓮飯店設宴款待。我在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2003<span lang="ZH-TW">至</span>2005<span lang="ZH-TW">年曾當過陸委會的諮詢委員,當年每次開完會便立刻趕到機場打道回港,竟沒有留意總部的旁邊有這麼一個好吃的地方。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 7.5pt;"><span style="color: grey; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">今次選舉氣氛不算熾熱,在凱特格蘭大道與板橋等兵家必爭之選戰基地,雖有熟練的助選員聲嘶力竭地呼喊口號,但我還是感覺不到太多的激情。競選的口號亦多包含柴米油鹽般的民生訴求,並不一定都是政治意識形態。說得好聽一點,是選民日漸成熟,政客叫甚麼口號也不太重要;說得悲觀一點,是選民看</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Show<span lang="ZH-TW">的熱情已開始冷卻,選舉時政客就算扭盡六壬,效果也不如前。</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">得票不過半 民進黨未來管治難</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">這次選舉結果顯示,民進黨未來的管治會十分艱難。賴清德與蕭美琴的組合取得</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">558<span lang="ZH-TW">萬票,得票率</span>40.05%<span lang="ZH-TW">,比起蔡英文</span>4<span lang="ZH-TW">年前得票率的</span>57.13%<span lang="ZH-TW">,掉得不少。總統票不過半,民進黨立法委員人數一樣減少,</span>113<span lang="ZH-TW">席中只得</span>51<span lang="ZH-TW">席,比不上國民黨的</span>52<span lang="ZH-TW">席。另民眾黨</span>8<span lang="ZH-TW">席可成關鍵少數,再有</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">席親藍的無黨派委員。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">這些結果並不令人驚訝。過去幾年,民進黨管治,怨聲載道,蔡英文的民望亦大跌。年輕人尤其對民進黨失望透頂,轉投柯文哲的民眾黨。但柯是理想的政治領袖嗎?他並無班底,政治理念及政策被台灣人民形容為變色龍般的投機主義。他曾在台北當過</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">8<span lang="ZH-TW">年市長,但台北的選民對他的支持度只得</span>23.79%<span lang="ZH-TW">,還低於他在其他地方的支持度,由此可知他在自己的大本營台北並無爭取到民心。國民黨一樣使人失望,黨內爭權奪利之風仍在,候選人侯友誼沒有個人魅力,副手趙少康好一點,但影響力也不足夠。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美多番暗助台獨 阻中國統一</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">幾位候選人都望之不似人君,選民如何能熱情起來?與其說是選一位最多人心儀的領袖,不如說是避免自己最討厭的人當選。以策略而論,這次選舉本可分兩陣營:支持民進黨的及反民進黨的。若侯友誼與柯文哲結盟,當可勝出,但柯有自己的盤算,一早與國民黨鬧翻,不可合作。用港人的術語說,柯是</span><span face=""PMingLiU-ExtB",serif" lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU-ExtB; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">𠝹</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">了非綠營的票。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">台灣選舉的候選人都要經過美國的「面試」,這已不是甚麼秘密,美國的政策對台的影響力自然重要。美國的政策是按美國自身利益所決定,近年美國對台的政策亦不斷調整。美國認為自己主要對手是中國,台灣只是工具。從前美國政策的重點是維持模糊性,不容許台獨真正的出現,但又多番暗助台獨,始終要防止中國的統一。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">不過,這策略有它的時限性。中國的軍事、經濟、科技力量日漸強大,美國多次沙盤推演,亦算出美國若在軍事上阻止解放軍攻台,美國會輸掉。在此考慮下,美國策略在兩、三年前已變,台海不穩定,美國並不介意,她反而希望兩岸打了起來。當然台灣難逃戰敗命運,但若戰況激烈,喪生的人足夠多,會使未來中國在台的管治增加困難,從而中國的發展亦受到掣肘。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">不過,有一點美國沒有變,她只是希望打代理人戰爭,自己不會為了台灣而冒險派兵。美國是一好戰國家,但十分愛惜自己人的生命。在越戰時美國還是採用徵兵制度,強迫美國人民當兵送死,那時反戰情緒在民間十分激烈。但後來改為募兵制,參軍是自願的,有不少福利,從此美國人不用擔心被強迫送死,反戰之風冷卻。但若是有美國戰艦被擊沉,士兵喪命的,民間還是接受不了,總統隨時下台。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">自己不打,光是賣軍火到台灣,又派人訓練台灣人在城市中打巷戰,又或上山打游擊,管不管用?我多次聽見在台的朋友說過,若問年輕人會否參軍對抗解放軍,大部分人都會看成是笑話,打巷戰游擊等更是匪夷所思。不少台灣人甚至主動「投敵」,跑到大陸投資及找工作,美國就算送軍火給台灣,結局恐怕如阿富汗般,美式武器最後都由當時的政府軍轉送到塔利班手上。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">料大陸減經貿讓利 動搖台根基</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">時間似乎是在中國一邊的,中國收回台灣的力量愈來愈強,美更阻不了。台灣的政客若想為自己增加談判的籌碼,早一點談更可能多爭取到利益,晚了便沒有了。大陸是否可慢條斯理地等待?也不見得。台灣島內推行「去中國化」的教育相當成功,學校不大教中國歷史,不少年輕人已失掉中國人情懷,對將來中國的管治不利。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">不過,正如上文所說,台灣人不願意參軍,若是解放軍打到來,他們也不覺得有太大損失。既然如此,選出刺激到大陸的民進黨,還是選別的,對自己人生的未來也不會有太大影響。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">至於中國,我估計是會減少對台的經貿讓利。台灣</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">35.2%<span lang="ZH-TW">的出口是到大陸及香港,佔</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">四分之一,大陸不優待台灣,經濟壓力會動搖台的根本。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: rgb(244, 244, 244); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2024-1-19)</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-50469497475068872742024-01-12T08:18:00.002+08:002024-01-12T08:18:55.316+08:00「賺到盡」對不對? (雷鼎鳴)<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">有位高人最近傳來一篇內地網誌「商聞」的文章,題為《李嘉誠自述》,作者赫然是「李嘉誠」。文章寫得不錯,匆匆一讀後,猜是李嘉誠找人代筆,再讀後卻不作此想。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">文章頗有條理的為李嘉誠「自辯」,作者似乎是因為內地曾有人大呼《別讓李嘉誠跑了》而大感不平。文章開宗明義說:「我是一個商人,希望大家不要給我戴上甚麼帽子,無論高的,還是矮的,我都不想有。」又指出:「我是一個純粹的商人,不要用那些空洞的道德來衡量我,如果不能做一個成功的商人,那我的職業是失敗的,不賺錢的商人不是好商人,也沒有資本利潤去做善事。」、「李嘉誠不會跑,也不願跑,更跑不了,這是我的真心話,也是我的誓言。」</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">此篇文章是誰人所寫,不得而知。我二讀後問過自己,假如我是李嘉誠,會否找人寫此文來一吐苦水,答案是不會,李嘉誠當然更不屑這樣做。中國歷史上常有偽託古人,用以加強自己文章的權威性,近代用名人的名字抒發己見的,更是多有。李嘉誠在內地撤走部分資本,被一些人質疑,甚至痛罵,已是多年前的事,為何現在又被人提起?也許是近年內地有些企業家並不好過,還有些是真的撤資想跑,中國恒大</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><a href="https://invest.hket.com/data/HKG03333/?mtc=70057"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: #cc0022; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">(</span><span style="color: #cc0022; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">03333<span lang="ZH-TW">)</span></span></a></span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"> <span lang="ZH-TW">執行董事及主席許家印便是一例,所以有些人想借題發揮,要為資本家辯護。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">企業家貢獻社會 應獲保護尊重</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">我平生從未有過資格當資本家,認識的資本家倒是不少,但想不起與他們有任何利益關係,不可能膜拜資本,也絕不會如民粹分子般憎人富貴。偽託的文章本來不用評論,但上述文章涉及的一些觀點卻值得深究。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">資本家有不同的等級,光是有錢並不值得我們尊敬,但他們當中有能力的一群,可稱為企業家,對社會卻可作出巨大的貢獻,任何社會都應給予他們應有的地位及保護,否則對經濟會有重大傷害。他們對社會有何貢獻?從經濟學的角度看,我們着實需要一批有眼光、有遠見的人不斷發現及發掘機會,把資源配置到最能推動經濟增長的環節上。若無他們,前車可鑑,我們可斷定,大量的資源會被浪費掉,國家社會都會走向貧困,不可不察。但人對前景總不可能看得通透,任何涉及未來的投資,總會有些風險,要當企業家,便必須為自己的決策承擔風險。我們不用因為成功的企業家能家財萬貫、風風光光而眼紅嫉妒,也要知道失敗的企業家往往要投河跳樓。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">上世紀最偉大的經濟學家弗里德曼(</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">Milton Friedman<span lang="ZH-TW">)曾有名言,商人的天職便是把利潤最大化,亦即港人痛罵資本家時說他們「賺到盡」。究竟在道德上「賺到盡」是對是錯?我認為這要看條件。「君子好財,取之有道」,這些道是甚麼?</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">經濟學鼻祖亞當</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">‧</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">斯密(</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">Adam Smith<span lang="ZH-TW">)早已提出,就算人人追求自私,自由市場的無形之手反而會把社會的總體利益最大化。這裏的關鍵是我們身處的市場,是充分自由競爭的市場(或起碼是接近自由競爭),還是被各種政策扭曲了的市場。在市場被扭曲的條件下,唯利是圖這一資本家的本性會驅使他們搶奪壟斷利潤,對世界造成不公。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">例如,香港多年來有條例要求房屋買家要付出</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">成、甚至</span>5<span lang="ZH-TW">成的樓價才可買樓,低於此數銀行不能借貸按揭。地產商有見及此,自己提供額外借貸,但這只能限於一手樓宇,在二手市場無此選項,所以近十年來二手市場大幅萎縮。二手樓過去佔了樓宇交易的絕大部分,萎縮後便不能再對一手樓構成重大競爭壓力,這是在一大段時間內地產商得到壟斷利潤的基礎。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">華為成功靠人才 非盤剝員工</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">假若市場有足夠強大的競爭壓力又如何?經濟原理告诉我們,資本的回報趨向它的邊際產值,勞動力或人才的薪金也會趨向他們的邊際產值,沒有剝削問題。換言之,企業家若是有眼光,他會付給員工合理的報酬,原因不是他們心存正義,而是因為若不如此做,員工會流失掉,對生產不利。當然,有些企業家可能有眼無珠,不識人才,以致自己企業表現平庸或甚至虧本倒閉,市場自會懲罰他們。只懂得思考如何盤剝員工的,根本不可能「賺到盡」!華為如此成功,是靠它重視人才,真正懂得「賺到盡」的原理。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">偉大企業家取財有道 熱心公益</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">成功的企業家擁有的財富會遠超常人,這是他們的本事,沒有甚麼不公平的。但社會關注貧富差距,有些企業家除了有商人頭腦外,也有崇高的道德水平。他們大量捐款也同時是慈善家。最偉大完美的企業家應有兩特性:做生意時取財有道,「賺到盡」,賺到的利潤大量用作公益事業。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">微軟創辦人蓋茨(</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">Bill Gates<span lang="ZH-CN">)、股神巴菲特(</span>Warren
Buffett<span lang="ZH-CN">)等做到此點,李嘉誠的捐款也以百億計,對這些企業家宜有適當的尊重。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"> </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">(經濟日報</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;"> 2024-1-12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">)</span><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-806052110816476172024-01-05T07:40:00.002+08:002024-01-05T07:40:29.911+08:00中國的債務並不構成重大危機 (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">西方政客及媒體唱衰中國經濟不是新鮮之事,近年他們的一條戰綫是誇大中國的債務問題,意</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-ascii-font-family: STSong; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: DengXian; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: STSong; mso-ligatures: none;">图</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">使人感到中國政府及社會皆欠債纍纍,無力償還,經濟崩潰可期。但若看他們的論述,除了數據誤導外,亦反映他們在經濟概念及中國國情的掌握上犯了一系列的錯誤。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">近月人民銀行新任行長潘功勝對中國債務問題,有權威性的釐清。其實只要檢視人民銀行定期發布的統計數據,也可對了解中國債務的實況大有益處。不是說中國完全沒有債務問題,而是西方媒體所言,似是病入膏肓之人反而對患上普通感冒之人指手劃腳,說他們快要死了。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">中國政府債 與美性質大不同</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">先弄清一些事實。債務有政府債與民間的債務,二者要分別討論。政府總共欠債多少要先看看用甚麼口徑,即包括甚麼在內。例如新加坡政府的欠債率極高,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2022<span lang="ZH-TW">年達</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>167.8%<span lang="ZH-TW">,但我們並不用太理會新加坡政府會否爆煲,原因是新加坡有中央公積金,政府把源源不絕的公積金借入,用以投資賺取回報再支付公積金的利息。又例如香港金管局發行了</span>1.25<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億港元的外滙基金票據及債券,佔了香港</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">差不多近半,但此種債務是用來調節金融市場的,隨時有力還債,不會構成金融危機。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">中國</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2023<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>11<span lang="ZH-TW">月,據人民銀行的資料及國際貨幣基金的口徑,政府共發行了</span>60.6<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億人民幣的債務,佔</span>2022<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>50%<span lang="ZH-TW">。這筆債中,中央政府的欠債約</span>25<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億人民幣(佔</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>21%<span lang="ZH-TW">),地方政府約欠</span>35<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億人民幣(</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>29%<span lang="ZH-TW">)。這是否危險?可作一些跨國比較,美國聯邦政府欠債</span>28.75<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元,地方政府欠</span>3.26<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元,共</span>32.01<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元,佔</span>2022<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>124.8%<span lang="ZH-TW">,遠高於中國的</span>50%<span lang="ZH-TW">。若是與日本政府欠債等於</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>241%<span lang="ZH-TW">相比,中國仍未夠資格被稱為高欠債國。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">項目投資回報比例 需關注</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">上文提過,不同口徑定義的欠債可得到不同結果。若用最寬的口徑,中國地方政府的債務或許大至</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>87%<span lang="ZH-TW">,這樣一來,中央加上地方政府的欠債便高達</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>108%<span lang="ZH-TW">,似可與美國爭鋒。這種比較也是誤導的,中國地方政府的欠債與美國聯邦政府的欠債性質上頗有不同,中國地方政府借來的錢大多用於投資建設,有實物支持,將來也可帶來回報,若回報夠高,借得愈多愈好。美國聯邦政府的不同,它借來的錢是要應付今天的消費開支,用掉了便沒有了,借得太多,容易無力償還。二者的差別,不可不察。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">這並不表示地方政府債的高企可以完全不管。過去十多年,地方政府財政上失去不少自主權,富裕省份的收入,不少要上繳,支持中央及低收入省份。收入被取走一部分,開支卻不易減少。地方政府的開支是否符合成本效益?它們在基建等公益事業上有大量投資,有些回報并不好,例如在荒山野嶺上開路,要很久才有收益。有些則人民得到方便,經濟得到開發,社會回報很高,但政府本身並不一定能收取到多少收益,那麼從政府的角度看,便是入不敷支,要虧本了。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">另一些則不但社會回報高,政府也可收回足夠的資金,不用虧損,這當然是較理想的情況。香港填海造地不但能帶來龐大的社會收益,政府靠賣地取得的資金,亦可合理估計超過建設成本,正是此種社會與政府回報皆不錯的例子。但內地未必每個項目都能達此標準,如何保證政府自己能在投資項目上取回付出的成本,亟需關注。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">除了政府欠債外,尚有民間欠債。據人民銀行數據,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2023<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>11<span lang="ZH-TW">月中國社會融資規模存量是</span>365.77<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億人民幣,減去了</span>60.6<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億人民幣政府債券外,仍有</span>305.17<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億人民幣,佔</span>2022<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>252%<span lang="ZH-TW">。這數字代表着政府以外的欠債,當中包括家庭債務與企業債務,家庭債務大部分應來自房產的按揭。美國的社會融資(政府以外)是多少?</span>2023<span lang="ZH-TW">年第三季,住戶及非牟利機構共欠</span>19.752<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元,非金融企業欠</span>21.184<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元,共佔</span>GDP 161%<span lang="ZH-TW">,比中國的低。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">民間儲蓄率高 非債務高企</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">這並不表示中國民間(住戶加企業)的債務過高!要知道,中國的儲蓄率高達</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>45%<span lang="ZH-TW">,與新加坡是叮噹馬頭,這麼龐大的新增資本如何注入經濟體中?中國的股市不算發達,大部分的資金只能通過存入銀行,再被住戶借來買房子或企業借來投資。因債務融資是住戶及企業得到資金的主要方法,所以中國的債務必不會低,但這些錢借來是用作投資而不是消費用掉的,所以遠為安全。但當然投資要注意成本效益,若像某些地產企業般過度擴張,借了錢給它們則風險大矣。所以問題不在債務的大小,而在投資是否審慎。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">另一點也要指出,一個國家若無外債,若借款人共借了</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">10<span lang="ZH-TW">億元,那麼同一國家內的債主便必曾借出過</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">億元,這筆錢是他們的資產財富。中國外債遠低於美國,是自己借錢給自己,安全得多。</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 3.75pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(經濟日報</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> 2024-1-5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">)</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-39590249443657655202023-12-29T08:45:00.001+08:002023-12-30T15:55:38.068+08:00從西安古城牆 思考今天地緣戰略 (雷鼎鳴)<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">這個月最冷的幾天,我與學界的一些朋友組團到西安參觀旅遊。這已是我第</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">5</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">次到西安,每次都總有所得。例如上一次,是應西安交通大學之邀到那裏講學,意外之喜是尋幽探勝,到了離校園不太遠、唐朝的興慶宮遺址,它現在已變成公園,相傳當年李白為楊貴妃賦詩《清平調》便在此地。另一喜是在碑林花了</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">1,000</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">多元買了一大幅《大秦景教流行中國碑》的拓片,後來才知道國家主席習近平剛也送了一幅給教宗方濟各,教廷甚為欣喜。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">今次已是第</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">4</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">次到訪兵馬俑,全中國最難買票入場、人山人海的陝西省歷史博物館,從前也來過兩次。本以為這次不會再有驚喜,但原來過去沒有注意到的西安城牆,其細節竟充滿了中國人建築與軍事戰略的智慧。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">城牆共</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">13.74</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">公里長,是現今世界規模最大、最完整的古代軍事城堡設施,在城牆上遊客可騎單車通行。不過,城牆雖壯麗,若無高人指點,對很多重要的細節也是會視而不見的。這次運氣好,導遊是一名副其實的高人,聽他如數家珍般介紹城牆,歷史知識自然快速增長。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">城牆固若金湯</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">細節充滿智慧</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">怎麼知道他不是道聽塗說,胡言亂語?可以的,要檢驗一個人在其領域的功力,要看看他在某些較少人掌握的知識上是否有清楚的認知。多年前我一位舊同事、著名歷史學家李伯重,聽到我提到司馬遷的父親司馬談,立即說我懂得漢朝的歷史。這當然有所誇大,因為知道司馬談的,人數不會太少。今次的西安導遊,知識可比知道一個歷史人物的名字有深度得多。不知怎地,他突然大談西周起源的斷代問題,並對這究竟是公元前</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">1027</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">年還是</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">1046</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">年提出他自己的看法。更使人驚訝的,是他知道</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">1027</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">年一說是根據《竹書紀年》的記載推論出來的。我</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">40</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">多年前研究過這問題,並認為《竹書紀年》可信。一聽導遊的論述,雖不同意他的結論,但卻知道他「食過夜粥」,道行深不可測。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">城牆有甚麼值得我們細看的?城牆既是防衞設施,國之重器,那麼首先要評估的,應是它的防衞能力。此城牆確是固若金湯,從它外觀上的宏偉堅固已可知一二。但更重要的是,它一道道設計巧妙的防禦結構。整座城都有護城河包圍著,這只是起碼的要求。一座城池的弱點在它的城門,要防止城門被攻破,吊橋是重要的。城門前的吊橋一拉起,閘門一閉,外敵便難以越雷池半步了。但原來後面還有多幾層保險,就算攻破了閘門,作用也不大。閘門內是一塊空地,四面有牆包圍,而且城牆上有箭樓,居高臨下,守城的士兵可從箭樓的窗中萬箭齊發,困在下面被牆包圍著敵軍是在送死。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">我在南京的中華門中見過近似的結構,叫作甕城,有甕中捉鱉之意,故意放一些人進入甕城,即可在箭樓萬箭齊發,消滅他們。西安與其他甕城不同之處,是與甕城結構接近的,竟有兩個。在第一個甕城死不掉的,在第二個也可能被滅。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">甕城這東西,符合古今兵法。《孫子》有云,「十則圍之」,敵人若有堅固的防守陣地,要攻破它,便要有多倍的兵力。由此可知,守城者兵力多半遠不及來犯者,如何以少勝多?毛澤東的戰略是把敵人割裂起來,己方便可以用優勢的兵力把對方一小撮一小撮的除掉。西安的甕城正是利用早已建成的城牆,把敵人一塊塊的分割起來。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">聯國投票</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">美屢大敗中方取勝</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">美國對中國發動冷戰,美國主攻,中國主守。如何守?方法之一是把其他國家拉來自己一邊,這樣對方的朋友或盟友便愈來愈少,亦即把對方的實力一口一口的吃掉。美國與中國都有採取相應政策爭取其他國家支持,但從聯合國多次投票結果所見,都是美國大敗、中國一方取勝便可得知,美國不大成功。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">我在其中一個甕城見到,要進入該甕城要走側門,但此門一旦關上後,敵人很難把它撞開。原因是城門對著門外不遠處有一堵牆,若要撞門,空間受阻,很難撞得開。戰爭時,我們都想製造一種形勢,使對手行動時縛手縛腳,處處受阻,那麼,其勝望自會杳然。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">城牆上每隔</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">120</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">米,便會有一結構在城牆向外凸出,這些叫敵樓。其作用顯然,別人攻城時,若無這些凸出的結構,守城士兵只能單向抵擋敵軍,但若有敵樓,則因射箭的角度不同,可以用交义火力使敵人腹背受敵。在今天的地緣政治中,美國尚無法從俄烏戰爭中脫身出來,突然又來個巴以戰爭,美國是否願意在台海再開一戰綫?此種態勢倒不是中國營造出來的,而是美國把自己隨時弄成腹背受敵。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">西方道德高地崩潰</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">難控形勢</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">城牆上的箭樓很有意思,居高臨下,控制大局。從前西方世界為自己打造道德高地,大佔便宜,但近年其道德地位已崩潰,等於箭樓已塌下,再控制不住形勢了。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 3.75pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(經濟日報</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> 2023-12-29</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">)</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="p3" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-weight: bold;"></span></p><p class="p3" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-24433293719653966702023-12-22T09:04:00.002+08:002023-12-22T09:04:15.751+08:00美國社會撕裂加劇 (雷鼎鳴)<p> <span style="background-color: #f4f4f4; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美國政府常會為世界及美國人民帶來驚訝,為何這個政府如此喜歡製造敵人,盡做損人害己之事,而不把更多的資源用在化解自身內部矛盾之上?若說這政府完全不肯花錢去化解社會矛盾,也不全對,它眼見政府難以借到足夠資金供其冷戰及熱戰之用時,也殺伐決斷,迅即大幅加息。這可使它借到錢,經濟也有机会出現短暫繁榮,但借來的錢不是免費午餐,將來是要還的,而且利息一樣要還,把今天的財困推到將來,並非好政策。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">我聽過一種說法,美國自己鬧出內戰的機會比台海戰爭的概率還要高。我不判斷哪種概率高一些,但卻同意美國社會矛盾非常嚴重。最近一宗事件反映出美國的精英也在嚴重分裂,此事可大可小,隨時可癱瘓美國社會。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美大學校長聽證 回應惹爭議</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">事緣在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">12<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>5<span lang="ZH-TW">日美國國會邀了麻省理工、哈佛與賓夕法尼亞大學的</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">位校長到國會聽證。其間一位共和黨女議員對</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">人都問了同一問題:「若有人在(校園)呼籲要對猶太人種族滅絕,是否有違反校規?」</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">位頂尖名校的校長都被認作在支吾以對,不願斬釘截鐵地表示此事有違校規,而是要看看前因後果才可定論。這些校長的回應在政界及學界弄得沸沸揚揚,美國政府譴責他們,賓夕法尼亞大學校長馬吉爾(</span>Liz
Magill<span lang="ZH-TW">)被迫下台,其校董會主席也一樣辭職,其間有巨富表明,馬吉爾若不辭職,便不再捐錢。哈佛的校長有數百教職員力撑及校董會支持,不用下台。麻省理工的校長是猶太人,很難用反猶太名義要她離去,但暫未知兩位校長將來如何收場。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">為何那位共和黨女議員會對</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">位校長都有此一問?原來校園中有人(可能是巴勒斯坦人的同情者)喊出要將「起義」(</span>Intifada<span lang="ZH-TW">)全球化的口號,有些猶太人認為口號的意圖便是要在全球滅絕以色列及猶太人。此事是否可如此理解,我們可暫時不論,但</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">位校長的表現確並非盡如人意。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">我反對恐怖主義,但更反對殘暴程度更高的種族滅絕,亦曾多次撰文,做事不能為求目的不擇手段。巴人受以色列打壓多年,哈馬斯用上了恐怖主義襲擊,有其因由,但手段是錯誤的。為甚麼世上大多數國家及不少以色列人民及猶太人都要以色列停火?原因恐怕是以色列政府用上了種族滅絕的手段,使人反感。我認為</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">位校長的回應可以十分簡單,便是立場鮮明地反對恐怖主義及一切形式的種族滅絕,道德上這絕對站得住腳。也許校園中有人在鼓吹要滅絕猶太人及以色列,這些人可能是一些左派極端分子,思想不通,也不會成事,校長反對他們又有何妨?反對以色列屠殺巴人更是正確。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">倘觀點政治不正確 易遭狙擊</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">這些名校校長當然不是愚笨之人,為何沒有無條件地反對種族滅絕?我相信原因是近十多年來,美國校園出現了一種風氣,便是事事都要講求是否政治正確,若觀點被認為政治上不正確,容易受不明人等狙擊。美國政府及媒體大力替以色列辯護,若有人反對以色列的敵人,建制會認為是政治正確的行為,但因以色列政府殺人如麻,校園中也顯然存在着一股正氣,不滿以色列對巴勒斯坦的種族滅絕。若校長被認為偏袒了以色列及猶太人,隨時</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">也</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">會被學校內外的一大批精英認為政治上不正確,這是校長們不願見到的。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">整個事件揭示了好幾個深層次矛盾,頗為複雜。美國的左派本來不一定反猶,但現時以色列政府做得太過分,這些左派也包括不少有正義感的猶太人,及政治上較中立的中間派,都變成同情巴人。猶太人掌控了傳媒及金融,民主黨及共和黨都不敢反抗。美國政府會感到「顺得哥情失嫂意」,跌入十分尷尬的陷阱中。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">校園大規模反美助戰 機會低</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">首先是它與一大群學術精英產生矛盾。美國的傳媒及財閥雖然站在以色列一邊,但知識分子不見得都會這樣。校園中及社會上同情巴人的聲音仍會此起彼伏。美國支持以色列等於與中東諸國為敵,不利美國維持中東的穩定性,並且難以集中力量對付中國,這點不符美國政府的利益,美國政府應感到進退兩難,十分苦惱。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">民主黨的困境比共和黨更大,後者因不是執政黨,空間更大,自己雖然也不敢得罪以色列,但卻可把社會中的不滿都歸咎於民主黨的無能。不過,美國社會中反對以色列同情巴勒斯坦的人雖然很多,校園中會否出現如越戰時期般大規模的反對美國資助俄烏戰爭或以巴戰爭?不大可能,越戰時美國士兵是被徵召入伍送死的,所以年輕人反對。但今天美軍用薪水吸引人民當兵,人民不用被迫送死,這便化解了一個大矛盾。不過,假以時日,社會中的撕裂仍會屢屢出現。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2023-12-22)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-19042638392480726352023-12-15T09:20:00.000+08:002023-12-15T09:20:04.971+08:00為甚麼中國經濟能維持長期高增長?(雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">中國經濟不是沒有困難,而且困難不少,但它早已具備寒梅傲雪的能力,可把逆勢作為推動力,把自己推</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: DengXian; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ligatures: none;">上更高的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">台階。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">有甚麼困難?一個國家的經濟表現,主要有兩種形態:一是隨機震盪帶來的商業周期,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">上下波動;二是長期性的增長或停滯甚至衰落。中國目前也許還處於商業周期的下行階段,但長期性的增長動力依然強勁。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">一帶一路</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">RCEP <span lang="ZH-TW">減逆全球化傷害</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">負面的震盪是不少的。殺傷力最大的應是新冠疫情,去年上海封城是震盪的一個高峰。新冠雖已漸去,但它的殘餘影響總會如幽靈般在中華大地上飄蕩一段時期。舉個例子,疫情期間大量的勞動力變作防疫員工,現在他們都要轉工,找工作也要一段日子吧。疫情期間,政府及個人總會吃掉不少儲備,現在須節衣縮食,補充回耗掉了的彈藥。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">地緣政治帶來大量不確定因素。俄烏戰爭及巴以衝突都會傷害世界經濟,不利中國的出口市場,但這兩處的衝突,也起到把俄羅斯及中東多國推向中國懷抱的作用,使中國能源不足所構成的風險紓緩不少。至於地緣政治主導下,美國對中國實施的科技遏制,卻迫使中國投入更多的資源去發展科技,並屢有突破。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">貿易戰尚未結束,但中國去年的對外貿易總量及順差都破了歷史紀錄,足以證明中國經濟抵抗逆境能力強悍。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">發展商建了太多房屋,製造了泡沫,對經濟傷害很大。但我相信,內地房地產問題所造成的困擾,遠遠不及</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2008<span lang="ZH-TW">年美國的次按危機,原因是中國社會的儲蓄率高達</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>45%<span lang="ZH-TW">,新增資本積累迅速,就算債務問題嚴重,也有本錢在較短時間內化解。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">中國過去幾年也推出了一些社會改革的措施,例如,在娛樂圈中遏制「娘炮」現象,使「小鮮肉」不如從前般吃香;在教育上,也約束了補習班等迫使兒童過度學習的活動。此類政策或許有爭議,但我們很難說其沒有理據。不過,從數字而言,它們對</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">總會有負面影響。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美國曾說要與中國經濟脫鈎,但後來發現脫不了,改口為去風險化,但實際的影響還是全球化過程出現倒退。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">過去幾十年,世界經濟生產力能夠上升,很大程度靠全球化帶來的國際分工所推動,現在逆全球化,容易製造世界性的經濟危機。中國應變之道是更加開放,西方世界不可靠,便發展一帶一路及</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">RCEP<span lang="ZH-TW">(區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定,</span>Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership<span lang="ZH-TW">),此種方向,應可減少逆全球化帶來的危害。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">投資率達</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">四成 資本累積快</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">上述的是商業周期的因素,它們與長期的增長因素有所不同。我曾做過定量分析,發現近十多年中國經濟增長的動力七成來自中國的高儲蓄,三成來自它生產效率(全要素生產力)的進步。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">中國的儲蓄率近年約等於</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>45%<span lang="ZH-TW">,人民不消費,把錢儲起來不是會減少內需,不利經濟嗎?非也!內需有兩大類,一是消費,二是投資。消費的部分,用掉了便沒有了,對未來經濟無甚助益。投資的部分不同,它使到資本累積起來,有利未來的生產。中國的投資率達</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的</span>43%<span lang="ZH-TW">,如此高的投資率使資本累積的速度變得很快,也正是中國經濟增長的主因。我們當然可質疑,靠紮緊褲頭節衣縮食來推動經濟,是否有其局限?積累到的資本建第一條鐵路效益或許很大,但若已建了</span>100<span lang="ZH-TW">條,再建第</span>101<span lang="ZH-TW">條,其作用是否已微不足道,不能再推動經濟?這種說法是據經濟學中的「報酬遞減律」而推論出來,本身沒有錯,但我們還要注意另一因素,即生產效率進步所帶來的影響,可足以化解報酬遞減的力量。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美大搞制裁 反助中企生產進步</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">中國過去生產效率增長率很高,主要得益於全球化及開放改革紅利,但近年生產效率的增長速度放緩,大約維持在每年</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2%<span lang="ZH-TW">增長左右,我相信是得力於科技與教育的投資。為甚麼投資會有報酬遞減呢?主要是找不到足夠多的有高回報的投資機會,但新的科技卻可為投資界打開一道道門,使他們見到新的投資機會,從而繼續得到豐厚回報。例如,若沒有先進的手機,今天的網購如何能活躍起來?如無人工智能,誰可造出智能汽車?</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">中國的高新科技从前並無比較優勢,但長期的教育及科技投資,卻使中國掌握了科技實力,此種實力原本也不足夠,因為歐美社會擁有不少專利權,中國的生產經驗也不足夠,市場中競爭不過別人。但美國大搞制裁,反而使中國的市場出現空間,容許了自己已擁有實力的企業去生產,有了生產經驗便成就了飛躍的進步。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2023-12-15)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-47225610456201391082023-12-08T09:00:00.002+08:002023-12-08T09:00:41.387+08:00「適者生存」還是「強者生存」?(雷鼎鳴)<p> <span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">近年香港經濟表現差強人意,今年的實質</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">與</span>2018<span lang="ZH-TW">年相比,恐怕還會低兩、三個百分點。如此停滯的局面也可反映在消費、貿易、股票、房地產等等領域之中。其主因固然與新冠疫情有重大關係,但香港面對的負面因素,卻又遠不止於日漸離去的新冠。我們一旦處理得不好,香港大有可能如日本般跌入停滯陷阱中。</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">港擁優勢 化解危機關鍵要「變」</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">不過,在困難背後,香港依然擁有不少優勢。能否化解負面因素,利用到優勢,關鍵在一個「變」字。達爾文說「適者生存」,沒有說「強者生存」,因為科學根據只證實了前者,沒有支持後者。香港自己的歷史,也說明當港人身段靈活,適應能力高的時期,每每便能化險為夷,走出困境,創造輝煌。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">五、六十年代香港人口暴增,人民收入低下。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">港人除了繼續利用其天然優越的地理位置及港口進行進出口貿易外,還很快學會利用廉價勞動力生產勞動密集的產品,紡織廠如雨後春筍,吸納了大量勞動力。當港人的技能有所提升後,需要較高技術的製衣業亦興旺起來。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">老一輩的港人自然也不會忘記在家穿膠花的日子,我小時候僅有的零用錢便是靠此而來,哪有今天禁止童工這麼講究。我中學暑假時當過推銷員,在觀塘、新蒲崗、荃灣等工廠區逐戶售賣價格定於</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2,500<span lang="ZH-TW">元只懂計算加減乘除的計數機,並在一個月內成為公司的最佳推銷員。當時眼見香港的工業非常發達,而事實上,香港已是玩具與電子手錶的世界第一大生產地。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">不過,香港作為重要工業城市的地位,在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">70<span lang="ZH-TW">年代後期已面臨南韓等地區也能提供廉價勞工的威脅,隨時失去競爭優勢。但在此時,平地一聲雷,世界形勢丕變。中國推行改革開放,大量港商拿着一個公事包便到內地創業,工業迅速北移,形成香港是前店,內地是後廠的格局。香港本土的製造業勞動力雖下降了</span>9<span lang="ZH-TW">成有多,但服務業及金融業卻成長了起來。若無上一代港人的善於應變,今天的港人收入恐怕會沒掉過半。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">外部受美打壓 內部青年「躺平」</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">今天香港面對着的困難我認為有來自外部的,也有內部的自身問題。外部主要是美國因為恐懼中國的崛起而全方位地遏制中國的發展,對香港的無理打壓也會不遺餘力。此政策對美國傷害極大,但香港經濟也難免被波及,此種態勢會持續多久?我相信還可能會更惡劣</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">, </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">但約</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">15<span lang="ZH-TW">年後,情況會大幅改善,原因是到時中國的</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">以購買力平價計算,可達到美國與歐盟</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">的總和。美國堅持損人害己的政策,再無意義,應面對現實,向中國求和,大家一起賺錢了。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">至於香港的內部問題,我認為是部分港人失去了從前以市場力量為指路明燈,哪裏有錢便向哪裏發展的務實心態。取而代之的是沉溺於口號式意識形態,不懂世界艱難、大國博弈凶險無比的幼稚思想。有此心態的年輕人因為脫離現實,必會遭到不少挫折,失望之餘,容易出現「躺平」的心理,不思進取,就算機會就在眼前也會錯失。香港政府把公屋比例增加,取得公屋實質等於天降數百萬元横财,這也會削弱年輕人為前途而奮鬥的意志,「躺平」、「巨嬰」的現象更易出現。這對港人的應變能力,當然不利。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">加入</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">RCEP<span lang="ZH-TW">拓「帶路」 港新機遇</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">我們當然也要指出,香港也有新的機遇。香港加入</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">RCEP<span lang="ZH-TW">(</span>Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership<span lang="ZH-TW">,即區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定)是早晚之事,港人傳統上與南洋諸國關係甚密,馬來西亞、印尼等地的華人不少都懂粵語,看香港電視劇長大,與香港文化頗為親近。何況香港素來是自由港,</span>RCEP<span lang="ZH-TW">的大幅削減甚至取消關稅,正是香港發揮所長的地方。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">至於一帶一路,也包括中東產油國。石油以人民幣結算的前景已非虛幻,香港是最大的人民幣離岸中心,有責任發展以人民幣為基礎的金融產品。這不但有助中國的經濟發展與地位,對香港也是重要商機。大灣區的高新科技發展,已接近可與三藩市矽谷分庭抗禮,十年內或許可超越。香港的科研力量有國際認可的實力,近水樓台,怎可白白錯過機會?</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">適應新形勢 港須造地提升科研</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">有機遇若不能掌握便只是空談。港人要利用到機會,還是要回到「窮則變,變則通」的原理之上。歐美市場萎縮,港人便要開拓自己不一定熟悉的一帶一路市場。高科技的發展能創造很多新的有高回報的投資機會,但港人一般的科技水平甚為平凡,這便需要我們多投資在科技研究上。教育體制中的科技含量也要增加,否則如何駕馭得了新的科技?香港土地昂貴,如何承載到新時代經濟與科技發展的所需?基建及填海造地才符合長遠利益。若能變,香港的前途是光明的,雖然道路也是曲折的。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">香港的前途也繫於中美博弈的結果。美國很強,但近年似乎無法適應世界地緣政治的變化,進退失據,力不從心。中國起點遠低於美國,但近</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">40<span lang="ZH-TW">年來皆能適應到其比較優勢的變化,以致能迅速多方面追上美國,這也正是香港最要適應的新形勢。</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2023-12-8)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-35999254986284476352023-12-01T09:01:00.000+08:002023-12-01T09:01:11.389+08:00美國博弈中的欺騙戰術 (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美國對付競爭對手時一向不會手下留情,她最得心應手的工具正是其宣傳手法。在心理戰中,她過去戰績輝煌,所向披靡,近年其戰力似已大打折扣,但世上恐怕不少人還是會對其宣傳信以為真。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">宣傳或心理戰中,政府公然說謊的,不是沒有(小布殊政府公然謊稱伊拉克有大殺傷力武器便是例子),但可能稍為少見,原因是被人拆穿後對己影響不妙。美國對中國(及不少其他國家)所用的心理或宣傳工具比較「先進」,主要是靠欺騙與隱瞞,被揭發的機會較低。美國對中國宣傳戰或心理戰的對象,倒不一定是中國,有時反而是美國人民。觀其手法,似乎主要有兩招。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">華崛起有目共睹 唱衰成效低</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第一招是唱衰中國,包括說她的經濟百病叢生,隨時崩潰,其科技實力似有若無,就算有甚麼成果,都是靠偷取美國的發明,十分可惡。此種論述,美國朝野本身不一定真的相信,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-ascii-font-family: STSong; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: DengXian; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: STSong; mso-ligatures: none;">这</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">從美國社會所顯示出恐懼中國終將超越美國的情緒便可見到。他們也需要另外的聲音作平衡,例如中情局公開的資料庫「世界事實書」,近</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">10<span lang="ZH-TW">年前已經顯示中國的國內生產總值(</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">)用購買力平價計算,已超越美國成為世界第一大經濟體。有些時候美國也有聲音說中國威脅力量強大,從而游說國會多撥軍費發展武器。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美國唱衰中國固然有受其傲慢心態所影響,但更值得注意的是當中複雜的博弈計算。美國的盟友若把中國看成是快將自身難保的怪物,永遠追不到美國及不可倚靠,最符合美國利益。美國雖自以為情報網發達,可把中國的實況看到骨頭裏,但中國的崛起有目共睹,美國唱衰中國的這一意圖恐難成事。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">唱衰的另一目標更為隱晦,但或許是現時的更重要意圖。眾所周知,中美雙方仍處於多個領域的博弈中,例如在貿易戰中誰應先解除關稅或制裁,頗有爭持。這是一種損耗戰,雙方都心知肚明,持續下去大家都要蒙受損失,最理想的局面是對方先讓步,自己既有面子又可脫困。但如何才能要對方先作出讓步?要直接騙到對方殊不容易,要中國相信美國自己犯上認知錯誤反為容易一點。美國只要顯示自己深信中國經濟十分不妥,自然意味着美國絕不會向中國讓步。中國若無力撑下去,美國只用稍作等待便可以了,哪用讓步?美國的如意算盤是,中國若然相信美國不可能會讓步,便惟有先讓步了。
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">學者:人權制度 打擊別國藉口</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美國的精英是否相信中國快將崩潰?三流的「精英」或許會有此想,我看過他們的一些「分析」,的確十分可笑。但美國人才眾多,一流的精英不會對現實作此錯誤判斷。美國政府雖然智商不高,也不至於如此低能,所以他們的唱衰可分類為自欺欺人,其自欺部分也是武器的一部分,他們正要中國相信他們已經成功自欺也。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美國宣傳戰的第二招是宣揚其所謂的自由主義選舉制度及對人權法治的尊重是世界的燈塔,中國(及其他國家)則情況惡劣,理應受罰。這顯然涉及欺騙了。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美國與其他國家交好還是交惡,是取決於對方的制度或意識形態,還是美國自身的利益?被不少人認為是國際關係學中最重要的大師、芝加哥大學政治學教授米爾斯海默(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">John Mearsheimer<span lang="ZH-TW">)說得對,人權、制度等等只是美國用以打擊別國的藉口,本國利益才是根本考慮。若非如此,我們便難以解釋為何美國會對自己盟國動手,日本的東芝在</span>80<span lang="ZH-TW">年代因為芯片製造領先世界,公司高層被美國抓去坐牢,東芝的芯片從此一蹶不振。法國的阿斯通在發電設施上比美國的通用電氣更有競爭力,幾名高層也被美國長臂管轄,坐了幾年牢。反之,沙特阿拉伯的思想與體制與美國格格不入,美國卻因地緣政治利益而拉攏沙特不遺餘力。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">近日香港著名評論家維塔奇(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Nury Vittachi<span lang="ZH-TW">)找出了一份文件,更證明美國外交只服從利益,不是意識形態,後者只是騙人工具。事緣</span>1948<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>28<span lang="ZH-TW">日,美國重塑全球戰後國際格局的总设计師、在國務院任高職的凱南(</span>George
Kennan<span lang="ZH-TW">),寫了篇絕密文件(</span>1974<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>6<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>17<span lang="ZH-TW">日解禁,網上可找到),名曰《</span>PPS23<span lang="ZH-TW">》。在其第</span>7<span lang="ZH-TW">節中清楚表明,美國的政治哲學生活模式絕不適合亞洲,它們不切實際也對(亞洲人)沒有幫助。又因美國當時雖只有全球</span>6.3%<span lang="ZH-TW">的人口,但卻擁有全球</span>50%<span lang="ZH-TW">的財富,所以會引起別人的反感。美國的重要任務便是要設計一種模式,使此種財富差距永久保持下去。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">其實前總統奧巴馬(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Barack Obama<span lang="ZH-TW">)也有相同觀點,他曾說漏了嘴,認為若讓中國人也能享有美國人般的生活水平,世界便承受不了。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">華屢重申 無興趣取代美國</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">很多人都曾問,中國人民脫貧,發展經濟,與美國何干?中國政府也曾在亞太經合組織(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">APEC<span lang="ZH-TW">)峰會期間及多個場合中申明,中國根本沒有興趣要取代美國,但我相信</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">这</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">不足以動搖美國對華遏制之心。若美國經濟上當不了世界一哥,她所發的債便會少人問津,美元霸權也會日漸衰落,她是不能接受的。為了維持其霸權,在與中國的博弈中,她會用盡一切心理戰術。「兵者,詭道也」,美國政府對欺騙手段,不會覺得道德上有欠缺。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2023-12-1)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-45171875073066730602023-11-24T08:56:00.003+08:002023-11-24T08:56:34.769+08:00三藩市APEC會議側記 (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">上周亞太經合會議(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">APEC<span lang="ZH-TW">)在三藩市舉行,意外地忙壞了我一位中學同學。事緣該同學的住所就在會議地點</span>Moscone<span lang="ZH-TW">中心旁邊,我曾去過他家,是一座大廈的高層,居高臨下,會議地點附近的街道活動可一覽無遺,連駐紮在</span>Moscone<span lang="ZH-TW">中心天台的保安人員舉動亦看得清清楚楚。國家主席習近平入住的酒店</span>Regis<span lang="ZH-TW">也在不遠處,其出入車隊或其他要來開會的元首車隊的陣勢也在視綫之內,並可觀察到記者也沒有注意到的事情。</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">三藩市逼遷露宿者洗街 免丟臉</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: grey; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">這位同學拿着手機不停拍攝,並即時傳到朋友間的</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">WhatsApp<span lang="ZH-TW">群組。因他住所樓下早被</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">呎高鐵欄圍着,不能開車進出,所以幾天都只能</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">全天候</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">待在家中觀察與拍攝,便宜了我們。若非他發現附近有人見他形迹可疑,用望遠鏡盯着他,我們或許可從更多角度觀察到今次會議的真況。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">三藩市近年來受困於「零元購」,在商店中不問自取的商品,每次只要在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">950<span lang="ZH-TW">美元以下,根本不會受罰。我相信這反而使當地變得比較安全,既然在商店搬走商品沒有後果,誰還會在街上持槍打劫?除了「零元購」外,三藩市市中心繁華地段成為露宿者地盤,也使人卻步。露宿者中癮君子不少,但對路人的一個重大困擾竟是他們連快餐店的廁所也懶得借用,在街上解決便是。在網上有一個三藩市的</span>Poop
Map<span lang="ZH-TW">,行人若發現某處有人類遺矢,可用手機在網上記錄之。一看這地圖,你可發現不少地區遺矢處處,在街上走動,隨時踩中地雷。美國人其實也愛面子,如此環境,在國際上如何立足?三藩市市政府平時無甚行動,但這次除了把露宿者暫時逼遷外,還把街道清洗一頓,以免在國際媒體報道下丟人現眼。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">朋友發現,元首頻繁路過,但開路車隊的規模大有不同。習主席的車隊氣勢磅礴,但小國的卻是英雄氣短,足見美國政府辦事是以對方國力為基礎,大小有別。此種處事方式亦可見於美國總統拜登(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Joe Biden<span lang="ZH-TW">)與習近平開會,地點選在有歷史性的費羅麗莊園,此地在風景區,</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">分鐘左右路程可到著名民歌歌手</span>Joan Baez<span lang="ZH-TW">住所。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">拜登隆重晤習 無暇理會菲總統</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">菲律賓本屆政府對美國言聽計從,總統小馬可斯(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Ferdinand Marcos Jr.<span lang="ZH-TW">)會議期間求見拜登,但後者沒空理會,改派次一級的副總統賀錦麗(</span>Kamala
Harris<span lang="ZH-TW">)見他,地點卻選在一極寒酸只得幾張椅子的房間,地上還隨便放着一個礙眼的包袱類物體。由此可見,菲律賓就算聽話,美國也不會當她一回事。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">在習近平與拜登會面前,拜登在手機找出一張</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">1985<span lang="ZH-TW">年習第一次赴美時以三藩市金門橋為背景的照片。此橋確為三藩市地標,習應有不少回憶。但其實對中國當前更有意義的橋,應是三藩市最繁忙的海灣橋(</span>Bay
Bridge<span lang="ZH-TW">)。此橋連接三藩市市中心與屋崙,</span>1989<span lang="ZH-TW">年加州大地震時東邊靠近屋崙與柏克萊那段橋的上層塌了下來,亟需重修。拖延了多年及經歷了多種政治及技術爭拗後,終在</span>2003<span lang="ZH-TW">年動工,建一座新的自錨式懸索橋。原本</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">至</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">年左右可建成,但總共用了</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">年,支出從</span>30<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元變成</span>70<span lang="ZH-TW">億美元。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">我有一中學同學是加州理工畢業的地震專家,是此橋的領導工程師,全程參與。據他告知,此橋的鋼鐵結構,是委託上海振華重工(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">ZPMC<span lang="ZH-TW">)製造的。美國有些人雖然因政治原因不滿用中國鋼鐵,</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">千方百计阻挠,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">但加州運輸部全球尋覓,除了振華重工外,根本找不到哪個企業有此能力滿足到造橋的技術要求,而且價格質量俱佳,橋建成後,工程師對此等鋼材讚不絕口。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">香港知名專欄作家屈穎妍曾有篇文章記載,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2013<span lang="ZH-TW">年時奧巴馬在邁亞密的碼頭演說,鼓勵美國人多用美國貨,豈料一陣風吹來,演說現場一幅布被吹開,赫然見到碼頭上的起重機都</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">标明</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">是振華重工的。由此可見,美國若無中國的輸出,其民生經濟會舉步維艱。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">海灣橋靠華輸出鋼鐵 始能重修</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">習近平的重頭戲之一是對美國商界的演講,此演講反應很好,被認為是中國向美國伸出友誼之手。今年</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">6<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>16<span lang="ZH-TW">日,習接見微軟創辦人蓋茨(</span>Bill
Gates<span lang="ZH-TW">),也表明「我們始終把希望寄託在美國人民身上」。在這方面,中國做了不少工夫。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">京爭美民間友誼 免被政客所騙</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">1985<span lang="ZH-TW">年習近平訪美時,在愛荷華州的</span>Muscatine<span lang="ZH-TW">鎮一個家庭</span>Dvorchak<span lang="ZH-TW">住了兩晚。當時習是河北正定縣縣委書記,赴美考察農業,並與</span>Dvorchak<span lang="ZH-TW">一家交了朋友。</span>2015<span lang="ZH-TW">年他邀這家庭到華共晉晚餐,此家庭其中一員早在</span>2013<span lang="ZH-TW">年已移民上海,對當地讚不絕口。在他的回憶中,他說習是很真誠的人,並曾對他們說,他認識的美國人,第一批正是他們,他對美國的印象便正是這個善良好客的家庭。我相信他此言非虛,美國人民中,有着十分善良的,與政客不能等同。我在美國讀書工作時,也認識不少這樣的人。習這種認知十分重要,足以影響中國對美的政策。與美國政客針鋒相對,但又爭取美國民間的友誼,讓他們不為美政客所騙,應是當前的國策。</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2023-11-24)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-62365023480356865032023-11-17T08:59:00.004+08:002023-11-22T23:12:24.394+08:00前車之鑑 日本40年的遭遇 (雷鼎鳴)<p><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美國遏制中國發展所採用的手段並非新鮮,她過去也用過,只是形式不同,對象也不同。歷史上最明顯的例子是美國80年代中至90年代中期間曾對她的盟國日本下手,日本經濟隨即停滯30餘年。日本失去這30多年,固然與美國有關,但當中有多種因素,其中部分也是日本自找的。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="box-sizing: content-box;">圓滙飈 日人均GDP曾超美</b></span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">正因日本在如日中天時被美國打擊,接着經濟便乏善可陳,增長戛然而止,很多人不免問上一句,會否中國也將遭到同一命運,她的高速增長再也難以為繼?要回答這問題,我們需先了解日本遇上了甚麼事,及中國的情況與日本是否大異其趣。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">日本在80年代的確十分風光,著名學者傅高義(Ezra Vogel)寫了本書《日本第一》(Japan as Number One),而她又的確做得不錯。日本人從只懂模仿進展為充滿創新能力,社會中有用無用的新產品層出不窮。連芯片這一高科技的象徵,日本的東芝也是全球最大的生產商,她所生產的動態隨機存取記憶體(DRAM),在1987年產值竟達全球的80%。日本的經濟其時早已十分發達,人均GDP以市場滙率計算,在1985年高達11,577美元,等於同年美國的48.5%。兩國的競爭還在迅速發展,到了1990年,日本人均GDP已反超美國21%,到了1995年,更是高出美國54%。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">不過,這主要是因為日圓急劇升值所致,並非其收入有這麼大的進步,在1985至1986年一年內日圓兌美元升值41.7%!</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="box-sizing: content-box;">日陷長期衰退 5關鍵因素</b></span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">但眾所周知,日本接着便陷入長期衰退,至今未能擺脫。為何如此?我細數一下,起碼有5個原因。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">最常被坊間提起的是,1985年日本被美國逼簽了《廣場協議》(Plaza Accord),日圓滙率大幅上升,從1985年到日圓滙率巔峰期的2011年,共升值了215%!升值可不一定是甚麼好事,對出口有負面影響,進口則增加,順差下跌。不少人把《廣場協議》視為日本經濟停滯的元兇,我對此看法有所保留。升值太多固然可對經濟構成破壞,但這是中短綫商業周期的其中一種因素,影響力不應持續近40年。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">第二個解釋是日本房地產泡沫爆破。從1985年9月至1990年9月,日本住宅價格上升了170%,商業用樓價格增加275%,銀座的商業樓宇每平方米高達100萬美元!但到了2004年則下降了共99%。為何有泡沫?據我的一位朋友、著名經濟學家伊藤隆敏的研究,主因是為了平衡日圓升值,所以日本央行錯誤地大搞量化寬鬆的貨幣政策。我認同房產市場崩盤對經濟有殺傷力,但此等因素,影響力是中短綫的,不應把近40年的經濟也搞垮。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">第三種理論是</span><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: DengXian; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">日本</span><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">經濟學家林文夫與我的一位老師、經濟諾獎得主普雷斯蓋特(Ed Prescott)所提出的。1988年日本政府把標準工時從每周48小時逐步減至1993年的40小時,又增加了勞工假期,致使工作時數平均下降至38小時。這是勞動力巨大的跌幅,全部抵銷了資本累積所帶來的正面影響。這因素有一定的影響力,但只能解釋90年代的經濟停滯,無法解釋為何在1995年以後,日本經濟還是沉屙不起。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">第四種理論是日本政府的理財頗有問題。其政府見到經濟不增長,便以為可靠多刺激消費去拉動經濟,但要知道消費不是投資,錢用掉便沒有了,不似投資可提高回報,有利經濟的長期增長。日政府拼命用錢,政府欠債高達GDP的兩倍多,利息負擔巨大,但開支多用在短綫消費上,對長期的經濟增長無甚助益。1985年,日本社會的總投資率是GDP的27%,去年是24%,比美國為高,但與中國的43%左右相距甚遠。資金累積不夠快,經濟難以增長。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">第五個因素是日本的生產效率也停滯起來,這主要是日本對美國的科技制裁完全屈服所致。正如上文所說,日本本來創新能力很強,但美國十分害怕日本的企業能超越美國。在1987、88年間找到個藉口,說東芝對蘇聯賣了一些高科技的銑床,美國說這威脅到她的安全,要大力制裁東芝,2至5年期間禁止東芝產品輸入美國,又把東芝幾名高層關入牢籠,還要東芝在全美登廣告道歉,盡情將其羞辱。東芝的高科技項目從此一蹶不振,拖到2018年還把其芯片項目賣給美國的Bain,乾脆不再生產芯片。这手法美國也曾用在法國的巨企阿斯通身上。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="box-sizing: content-box;">華投資力度足大力推動增長</b></span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中國的情況在重要的地方頗有不同。中國也有房地產泡沫,勞動力也因勞動人口下降而減少,但人民幣沒有如日圓般升值。中國的投資佔GDP的比重有43%,資金積累迅速,可大力推動增長,日本的24%投資率力度不夠。更重要的是,在美國發動的科技戰中,中國並沒有像日本般不戰而潰,反而遇到打壓後更奮發向上,科研成果湧現。況且中美之間人均收入的差距遠大於美日之間,中國繼續發展的潛力還很巨大。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: #f4f4f4; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">(</span><span style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">香港經濟日報 2023-11-17)</span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-85537732015490773952023-11-10T01:49:00.001+08:002023-11-10T01:49:29.385+08:00以巴危機能否了斷 (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">在哈馬斯襲擊以色列後,世界尤其是西方的輿論,本來頗為同情以色列,但很快國際輿論便開始轉向,同情以色列的聲音漸被譴責她的所掩蓋。聯合國</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">10<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>27<span lang="ZH-TW">日投票,</span>120<span lang="ZH-TW">票支持、</span>14<span lang="ZH-TW">票反對、</span>45<span lang="ZH-TW">票棄權,要求人道主義停火,不能讓在加沙的巴勒斯坦人民遭到轟炸、斷糧斷水、失救失治之災。這次議決雖無約束力,但顯然對投反對票的美國及以色列是一大打擊,也是以巴衝突輿論戰的一個轉捩點。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">為何國際輿論有此轉向?原因簡單,本來哈馬斯的恐怖主義行為不會為世界認同,但以色列的狂轟濫炸,醫院也不放過,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3,000<span lang="ZH-TW">名巴勒斯坦兒童失去性命,又強迫數以百萬計的加沙居民遷徙,活脫脫地在世人面前演示甚麼叫種族滅絕。哈馬斯的恐怖主義與種族滅絕相比,畢竟是低了一個層次!</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美媒屢偏頗報道 公信力漸降</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">再加上過去數十年,巴勒斯坦被欺凌的史實陸續被翻出來,世人不免要問,為何以色列的極右政權,竟然不懂「己所不欲,勿施於人」的道理,向巴人推行可與二戰時德國殘殺猶太人相比的政策。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">世界輿論的轉向,並不等同美國主流傳媒會支持巴人。誠然,美國也有不少頭腦清醒、明辨是非的猶太人意見領袖,如著名經濟學家薩克斯(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Jeffrey Sachs<span lang="ZH-TW">,今年中大、城大皆頒他榮譽博士學位),對以色列政府便大加批判,使人敬佩。但我們也要知道,美國主流傳媒的老闆或高層,幾乎都是猶太人的天下。據布魯金斯(</span>Brookings<span lang="ZH-TW">)今年</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">月底的民意調查顯示,</span>30.5%<span lang="ZH-TW">的美國人傾向支持以色列,只有</span>11.5%<span lang="ZH-TW">傾向巴勒斯坦,不偏向任何一方的則有</span>54.5%<span lang="ZH-TW">。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">如意算盤不響 美難抽身遏華</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">據蓋洛普的民調顯示,非常或比較相信美國傳媒的美國人口比例連年下降,去年只得</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">34%<span lang="ZH-TW">,完全不信的卻高達</span>38%<span lang="ZH-TW">。由此可見,美國傳媒在美國人眼中公信力已很低,但長期關於以巴的偏頗報道,依然有相當效果。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">以色列政府一意孤行,繼續推行可被當作對巴人種族滅絕的政策,受害者除了巴人以外,恐怕便是分居於世界各地的猶太人。他們當中也有人慨歎,現在又遇上反猶太的浪潮,苦不堪言。以色列政府損害了猶太人的利益及道德地位,可見一斑。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">對美國而言,這是很不理想的情況。美國國力衰退,財政困乏,烏克蘭的泥沼仍未能脫身。本來想在中東把沙特及以色列關係正常化,便可抽身去對付中國,但此等如意算盤已打不響。看樣子,她已是黃台之瓜,何堪再摘了。難處是以色列政府有美國富甲一方的猶太資本家及傳媒大亨加持,美國政客若想繼續在位,便絕不可忤逆以色列政府的吩咐。美國政府縱然希望以色列停火,顯然也無能為力,有位太上皇在頭頂也!除非現屆以色列政府被其願意維護正義的人民所唾棄,否則美國已是被以色列縛着手腳,有苦自己知矣。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">不過,下屆政府特朗普(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Donald Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">)捲土重來的機會,我相信稍大於一半,以他的癲狂性格,則甚麼事也可能發生。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">歐盟對以巴的態度又如何?這些國家在俄烏問題上判斷錯誤,現在應已明白烏克蘭只是在苟延殘喘,北約已近乎彈盡,無法再做冤大頭接濟烏克蘭,後者返魂無術的期限已快將來臨。在俄烏戰爭上歐盟就算挺直腰桿,不聽美國指揮,也因承受不起戰敗之恥,不敢貿然脫身。你要她們再介入因以巴而起的中東戰場,她們怎會不推三推四?</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">中國的運氣的確很好。美國本來要集中力量遏止中國的發展,但美國戰略錯誤,以為可靠制裁弄死俄羅斯,但事與願違,脫身不得,力量分散。現在又突然冒出個要搞種族滅絕的以色列,得罪了整個中東世界,美國又被以色列鎖死,還怎能對付蒸蒸日上的中國。難怪被譽為當代最重要的國際關係學大師芝加哥大學的米爾斯海默(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">John Mearsheimer<span lang="ZH-TW">),在以巴危機一出現後便為美國大歎倒楣,因他知道美國正在浪費資源,不能集中火力應付中國的崛起矣!中國則正好再利用此時機養精蓄銳,厲兵秣馬。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">華養精蓄銳 努力建設有回報</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">當今世界形勢的核心問題,仍是中國的冒升及美國的試圖遏制。俄烏戰爭及以巴危機都是情理之中、意料之外的事件,它們有大概率消耗掉以美國為首的北約的資源與精神,又把俄羅斯及阿拉伯國家都推向了中國,使中國的能源與資源供應更少後顧之憂,台灣問題的解決可能也更順利。天道酬勤,中國人民努力建設,推動人類命運共同體,終有回報。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2023-11-10)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: DengXian; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-15539759014336310602023-11-03T10:25:00.002+08:002023-11-03T10:25:33.345+08:00施政報告的鼓勵生育是否有效? (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">行政長官今年的施政報告,涉及的項目比前增加不少,但最引起坊間討論的,或許是鼓勵生育的多項政策。我研究生育與人口問題有</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">36<span lang="ZH-TW">年,對相關政策是否有效應該有一定的發言權。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">香港生育率奇低,冰凍三尺,並非一日之寒。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">香港的總和生育率,即每名女人一生平均生多少小孩,在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">1965<span lang="ZH-CN">年仍高達</span>4.5<span lang="ZH-CN">,但隨後急劇下降,到了</span>1991<span lang="ZH-CN">年,已跌至</span>1.4<span lang="ZH-CN">。</span></span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">要知道,一男一女兩個人才生下</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">1.4<span lang="ZH-TW">名子女,這便意味着每一代的人口會比上一代縮小。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">疫情</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">+<span lang="ZH-TW">經濟差 港生育率又急降</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">到了</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2000<span lang="ZH-TW">年左右,或許受到亞洲金融風暴的影響,總和生育率更降至</span>0.9<span lang="ZH-TW">。隨後經濟恢復,再加上不少內地人來港產子,生育率一度回升。今天總和生育率又降回至</span>0.9<span lang="ZH-TW">的水平,但這很可能受疫情影響,在疫情籠罩時,大家生命難卜,不少寧願另選更安全的時機才去生育,人之常情。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">其實政府對低生育率帶來的問題並非無知無覺,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">20<span lang="ZH-TW">年前的</span>2003<span lang="ZH-TW">年及</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">年前的</span>2013<span lang="ZH-TW">年,政府都成立過「人口政策督導委员會」分析相關事宜,我在</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">年前也是此委员會成員。不過,人口問題雖然重要,其作用卻是長遠的,對它的關注很快便被其他更即時的事情所淹沒,所以政府總是無心雷厲風行推出相應對策。今回施政報告有多項具體措施,算是異數。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">要明白甚麼政策才有效,我們須對症下藥。我們要注意,文化宗教因素基本上沒有角色。世上生育率最低的地方是東亞諸國諸地區及南歐國家。日本、南韓、台灣、香港、新加坡,甚至中國內地,生育率都遠低於</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2<span lang="ZH-TW">,人口會迭代減少。這些地方深受儒家文化影響,「不孝有三,無後為大」,但人民卻不會理會此教條,總之不生。南歐是天主教徒眾多的地方,天主教對多種節育的方法都不以為然,更反對墮胎。顯然,當地人民也並不怎麼受教義左右。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">不生育兩原因 樓價教育費貴</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">為甚麼上述地方生育率低企,而且還有進一步下降迹象?經典的說法是因為所謂的「人口轉型」(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">demographic transition<span lang="ZH-TW">),意指壽命增長會啟動整個人口形態的轉型。生育率與家庭中的教育投資都會上升,即家長對下一代的量和質都會有更高要求,以免自己老而不死時乏人照顧;但很快,對質的要求會壓倒對量的要求。教育水準愈高的父母,愈是打算把資源集中在小孩的教育及健康之上,這麼一來,成本可不輕,惟有減少數量。近二、三百年以來,多個國家都經歷過相似的「人口轉型」過程。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">不過,「人口轉型」似未能完全解釋香港的情況。我過去曾根據歷年人口普查的原始數據推算出香港有大比例的女性根本索性完全不生育小孩。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">45<span lang="ZH-TW">歲仍沒有生育過的女性比例不停上升,到了</span>2011<span lang="ZH-TW">年,已達</span>40%<span lang="ZH-TW">。現在多少,我沒有算過(計算很複雜的),不得而知。完全不生小孩意味着甚麼?投資在教育,也要有小孩作為載體,沒有了小孩也就等於下一代的質量無從談起。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">我十多年前做過一些隨機問卷研究,發現不生育的最重要原因有二:一是樓價貴,二是教育費貴。父母負擔不起,惟有不生或是少生。為香港摘下史上首面奧運金牌的「風之后」李麗珊當年的電視廣告,說養大一名子女要花費</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">400<span lang="ZH-TW">萬,更是嚇怕了不少準父母。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">李家超施政報告中有針對房屋成本對生育的影響,他提出讓肯生子女的有優先權入住公屋及降低居屋的門檻,是對症下藥的,但用藥的分量是否足夠,要試過才知。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">提早生領</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2<span lang="ZH-TW">萬 子女總數未必增</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">另一政策是派</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2<span lang="ZH-TW">萬元以作鼓勵。這或許是有用的,但我相信作用不大。如果李麗珊當年</span>400<span lang="ZH-TW">萬成本之數準確,今天恐怕要</span>600<span lang="ZH-TW">萬了,</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">萬如何足夠?</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">有一點必須注意,既然這政策暫定為</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">年,這意味着這</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">年內生育,有</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">萬可領,將來卻未必。理性的父母為求得到這</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">萬,會改變一下生育時間表,提早生育,否則將來未必有錢可領。換言之,準父母可能只是早一點生,但兒女的總數卻不變。倘若如此,政府的獎勵並不能增加下一代的數量。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">我們尚要留意一個假象,未來</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3<span lang="ZH-TW">年若生育率真的大幅上升,可能只是反映兩個因素。過去幾年因為新冠而生得太少,現在要追回過去的短缺,這正如二次大戰後的嬰兒潮,是因為要補回戰時的低生育。另一因素則正是就算本來打算幾年後才生一個的,現在則提早一點,領了那</span>2<span lang="ZH-TW">萬元再算。政府</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">年後的檢討,要小心一點才不會被自己誤導。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">也應指出,人口數量下跌也有其好處。今天我們大可預期不用</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">10<span lang="ZH-TW">年,大量的工作職位會被人工智能與機器人所取代,很多人會失業,社會隨時出現動盪。如果香港人口因生育低和有人移民離開而減少,香港豈不因禍得福,減低將來的失業壓力?</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2023-11-3)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-82504353447867441252023-10-27T07:37:00.001+08:002023-11-03T10:24:28.874+08:00為何中國只能選擇堅決抗衡美國? (雷鼎鳴)<p> <span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; text-size-adjust: 100%;">美國政府及傳媒的一個老毛病是高估自己,低估了世界各國的人民。此種錯誤認知,造成了美國雖擁有大量大殺傷力武器,卻仍不斷出現敗走麥城的局面,在包括中東在內的多處地方,勢力衰退。</span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">對於中國,美國的判斷力尤其差勁,她一早已忘記韓戰面對中國時的失利,繼而誤以為中國近數十年的發展是美國的恩惠,但到近年又因見到中國的輝煌成就而心生恐懼,胡亂反撲,害己害人。這可不是甚麼好事,美國認知錯誤會破壞其經濟,經濟不好則社會矛盾容易激化,政客有見及此,常會製造外部敵人,以轉移美國人民的視綫,這又會使世界不得安寧。</span><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">是的,我並不希望美國經濟衰退或崩潰,因為這對世界其他地方都無好處。</span><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 7.5pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="box-sizing: content-box;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">美認知錯誤 高估自己低估中國</span></b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">美國政客高估自己、低估中國的一個典型例子,是其前副總統彭斯(</span><span class="x_ContentPasted0" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mike Pence<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">)在</span>2018<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">年</span>10<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">月</span>4<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">日一篇滿紙荒唐的演說。他認為,從</span>2000<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">年至</span>2017<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">年中國經濟有</span>9<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">倍的增長,很大程度上得益於美國對中國的投資。他錯在連數據也不去查一查。</span>2000<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">年,美國在華的直接投資</span>43.84<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">億美元,遠低於彈丸之地的香港在內地的直接投資,也只等於當年中國總投資額的</span>0.97%<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">。到了</span>2021<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">年,美國在華直接投資額已降至中國總投資額的</span>0.034%<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">,微不足道。中國的經濟早已是一龐然大物,其增長怎會靠美國一點點的投資?</span></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">美國對中國為何如此傲慢?這也許要「怪責」中國發展得太快了。</span><span class="x_ContentPasted0" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">1978<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">年中國的實質</span>GDP<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">只是去年的四十四分之一,到了</span>2000<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">年,也只是去年的五點九分之一,與美國相差甚遠,美國可以不理。但在兩年前,已是美國的四分之三,而且來勢洶洶,美國如何不懼?但中國的所謂「威脅」,又絕不只是</span>GDP<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">數據的上升,而是軍事科技等全面提升。</span></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="box-sizing: content-box;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">京倘屈服美制裁 日後更難對抗</span></b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">在</span><span class="x_ContentPasted0" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">10<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">多年前及更早,中國發揮着其廉價勞動力眾多的比較優勢,生產並輸出了大量價廉物美的商品,有效地遏抑了美國的通脹,賺回的美元儲備,又買了美元債券,借錢給美國人花霍。不過,在最近</span>10<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">年,從美國的角度看,中國</span></span><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: DengXian; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">却</span><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">犯了一项「大罪」。中國的比較優勢已變,高新科技產品層出不窮,在不少領域超越了美國。再加上中國的生產能利用到規模效應,產量大造成成本低,對歐美高科技或高檔產品構成重大競爭壓力,華為的手機與中國的電動車都是可信手拈來的例子。中國本來很樂意購買美國的芯片,但美國不肯賣,早晚中國的芯片會進步至可與美國爭一日之長短,而且勝望甚大。從廉價商品的供应者变成强悍的競爭對手,這還了得?</span><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">美國如何面對中國的進步?其政策模式已是有迹可尋。日本經濟與芯片等不少高科技項目,在</span><span class="x_ContentPasted0" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">80<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">年代一度有超越美國之勢,美國卻是用了一連串不太光彩的手段把日本打殘,以致日本經濟一蹶不振達</span>30<span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">多年!對俄羅斯,美國也是極限制裁。但日俄的對策大有不同,日本是全面屈服,不戰而潰。俄羅斯卻是頂住了,還與中國發展關係,美國也無奈何。</span></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">我們可用簡單的博弈論思維去分析美國的對華政策及中國回應之道。假設美國要用出口管制(加上長臂管制)去打擊中國的芯片及其他高科技的發展,中國有兩個策略選項:第一是像日本般屈服,第二是跟美國對抗。</span><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">假若中國選了屈服策略,那麼在短綫</span><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-CN" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">,</span><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">美國對華的各種設限也許會稍有鬆動,但長遠而言,中國的科技卻會受制於美國,後者只要舉起制裁大棒,中國比起今天更難對抗,中國的經濟也會因而大損。</span><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="box-sizing: content-box;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="box-sizing: content-box;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">勿步日本後塵 中國自力更生</span></b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">從上可見,中國絕不應步日本的後塵,否則不但經濟不景,中華民族的復興也不會出現。在美國主動挑釁的情況下,中國別無選擇,只能走自力更生、「重新發明車輪」之路。這條路不好走,某種程度上是全球化或開放的回頭路,好處是可獨立自主。</span><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">美國其實在此博弈犯了一個嚴重的錯誤。她本來也有兩個策略可選:第一是力圖阻止其他國家的崛起,第二是與其他國家和平競爭,投資在自己的科技教育之上,對別國不出茅招。假如她的對手是資源不足的小國,或是如日本般沒有腰骨,那麼第一策略的確有效,美國可保霸權。不過,如果對手有足夠實力及意志與美國硬撼,那麼只能是兩敗俱傷。對手若是中國的話,因為她擁有龐大的科技隊伍及廣闊的市場,美國會傷得更甚,芯片制裁造成華為王者歸來便是先兆。</span><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="box-sizing: content-box;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">華堅持繼續開放 力拓新市場</span></b><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-TW" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">美國的錯誤源自她的不知己也不知彼,政客要媒體胡亂抹黑中國,卻使到西方媒體再也不能承載準確的中國信息,造成西方世界掌握不了真正的中國現實。中國不與他們玩這一套,反而大力開拓新市場,繼續開放。</span><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-CN" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">將來誰勝誰負,一目了然。</span><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-CN" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p class="x_MsoNormal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background: rgb(244, 244, 244); border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: 100%; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="x_ContentPasted0" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.7pt; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">(</span><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">香港經濟日</span><span class="x_ContentPasted0" lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">報 </span><span class="x_ContentPasted0" style="background: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; font-family: STSong; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2023-10-27)</span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-32458567209710256732023-10-20T07:18:00.000+08:002023-10-20T07:18:04.133+08:00以巴局勢與世界地緣政治 (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">1948<span lang="ZH-CN">年</span>4<span lang="ZH-CN">月</span>10<span lang="ZH-CN">日,猶太人中的最強大腦愛因斯坦寫了一封信給一個駐在紐約的猶太復國主義組織負責人</span>Rifkin<span lang="ZH-CN">。信中只有兩句:「當一個真實及最終的災難在巴勒斯坦降臨到我們身上時,第一個應負上責任的是英國人,第二責任者則是從我們队伍中走出來的恐怖組織。我不願跟受到誤導及犯了罪行的人見面。」</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">以擴大佔據 巴人居住地愈小</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">愛因斯坦何出此言?原來</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Rifkin<span lang="ZH-CN">不久前曾寫過信要求大名鼎鼎的他公開支持猶太復國主義,但在當年</span>4<span lang="ZH-CN">月</span>9<span lang="ZH-CN">日,這個組織卻派遣恐怖分子在一個城鎮殺害了百多名平民,以便把此地的阿拉伯人清洗掉,讓猶太人居住。愛因斯坦是一位和平主義者,本身曾受過納粹迫害,顛沛流離,深明民族之間真誠對話的重要性,一口拒绝</span>Rifkin<span lang="ZH-CN">的要求。在以色列建國前的近兩千年,猶太人在世界各地流散,沒有國家,巴勒斯坦地區早已成為阿拉伯人及其他族裔的家園,但在</span>40<span lang="ZH-CN">年代,始作俑者的英國卻慷他人之慨,鼓勵猶太人從世界各地來此建國。建國土地來自何方?要靠侵佔巴勒斯坦原居民的土地!這怎可能不造成種族之間的嚴重衝突?猶太復國主義者的主要法律理據是甚麼?</span>60<span lang="ZH-CN">年代有首風行一時</span>Pat Boone<span lang="ZH-CN">原唱的歌曲《</span>Exodus<span lang="ZH-CN">》(講述以色列建國的電影《戰國英雄》插曲),歌詞第一段:「這是我的土地,上帝給了我們這片土地」(</span>This Land is
mine, God gave this land to me<span lang="ZH-CN">),竟是他們真心相信的「理據」。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">以色列通過戰爭及甚至恐怖襲擊建國,經過幾次戰爭後,我們從歷史地圖可見,巴勒斯坦人民居住的地方不斷被蠶食縮小,以色列的佔據地卻不斷擴大。今天巴人所佔之地只剩下約旦河西岸及只等於三分一個香港面積的加沙地帶。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">以趕盡殺絕做法 不符美利益</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2006<span lang="ZH-CN">年加沙人民透過投票讓堅決主張抵抗以色列的哈馬斯組織掌握了加沙的管治權,以色列及美國都很不高興。</span>2007<span lang="ZH-CN">年起,以色列採用了封鎖政策,把加沙的邊界用高牆圍困起來,運入食物、食水等都要以色列批准。</span>2008<span lang="ZH-CN">、</span>2014<span lang="ZH-CN">及</span>2021<span lang="ZH-CN">年以色列都有大規模轟炸加沙人口密集的市區,數以千計的平民死亡。</span>2018<span lang="ZH-CN">年以色列的極右分子還提出要把位於伊斯蘭教最神聖地方之一</span>al Aqsa<span lang="ZH-CN">的伊斯蘭教聖殿拆掉,代之以猶太教神廟。這不啻是火上加油,哈馬斯以飛彈回應,雖是以暴易暴,不足為法,政治上卻頗被憤怒的巴人所支持。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">以色列政府對付巴人的政策,不少可以用趕盡殺絕,以除後患作描述,此政府似乎相信這才是徹底解決問題的方法。在近日的事件中,以方指令加沙人民要</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">24<span lang="ZH-CN">小時內從北部遷到南部,便有種族滅絕的意味。加沙只在北部有醫院及難民營,公路及公共基建早已被炸掉,加沙的難民與傷者根本無處可去。若以色列堅持計劃轟炸北方,眾多平民只會傷亡。巴人也根本不相信以方存有人道主義心腸,他們離開後,土地只會被吞掉,歷史上這已有先例。巴人痛恨以色列人是顯而易見,難以化解的。難怪有人認為以色列政府要把別人趕盡殺絕的風格,只會使別人抱着同樣的態度對付她。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">從戰略上看,以色列現屆政府的做法並不符合美國的利益。美國政府認為頭號的對手是中國,她也曾試圖利用俄烏戰爭制裁俄羅斯,希望俄羅斯會崩潰及改朝換代,但現在事與願違,烏克蘭變成消耗美國資源的國家,政治價值又大幅貶值,美國若能找到下台階,可能會放棄掉烏克蘭,把資源用在對付中國之上,但以巴之爭卻可能把美國的部署打亂。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">烏國政治價值大貶 或遭遺棄</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美國在中東的影響力早已衰退,中國能把互相敵視的沙特阿拉伯與伊朗拉在一起,使其關係正常化,已是美國不想做也做不了的事。美國猶太人影響力巨大,美國政客若得罪以色列或不顧其利益,隨時會輸掉選舉並被媒體罵個不休。美國若撤離中東,按照以色列與阿拉伯諸國的惡劣關係,則以國危矣,解救之道是拉攏中東國家使其與以色列友好。目前美國力促沙特與以色列關係正常化便是為此鋪路,沙特乘機要美國多賣軍火給她,美國也很可能願意。但沙特也曾表明,與以色列的任何協議都須建基在巴勒斯坦建國能取得重大進展之上,現今世界多個地方對以色列正在製造的人道主義災難民意沸騰,西方傳媒也掩蓋不了。若然沙特聽從美國不顧一切與以色列交好,很可能國內政治會不穩,所以她乾脆宣布擱置跟以色列的談判。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">以巴之爭 打亂美國遏華大計</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美國國務卿布林肯(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Antony
Blinken<span lang="ZH-CN">)第一時間跑到以色列打氣,似起不了甚麼作用,以色列並無停止轟炸加沙。美國總統拜登(</span>Joe
Biden<span lang="ZH-CN">)見事態嚴重,要親自飛去以色列擺平,但在起飛前以色列卻炸掉加沙一醫院,死了</span>500<span lang="ZH-CN">人。這是嚴重的人道主義危機,拜登恐怕也回天乏力,唯有说對方是自己炸自己,舆论上抵挡一阵。美國勸阻不了以色列政府,中東的伊斯蘭國家與以色列的對峙會繼續下去。美國在中東被纏住,其遏華大計又將延誤。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2023-10-20)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-74754571020850217122023-10-13T09:29:00.003+08:002023-10-13T09:29:59.742+08:00人口紅利消失了便又怎樣 (雷鼎鳴)<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">過去</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">20<span lang="ZH-CN">、</span>30<span lang="ZH-CN">年,幾乎每年每月都會有一些對中國人民生活得到改善而感到不安的人跳出來,力陳中國經濟即將崩潰。但每當迷霧散去後,中國人民努力所得到的成績,又無一例外地把那些反華人士的預測變成笑話。這或許會使這些人像美國商務部長雷蒙多(</span>Gina
Raimondo<span lang="ZH-CN">)見到華為的新手機後那般感到「不可思議的難受(</span>incredibly disturbing<span lang="ZH-CN">)」。其實他們若不想不斷懷着悲愴的心情遭受失望的折磨,也不是沒有辦法,只需學點經濟學並精準地分析數據便可避免錯誤。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">影響中國經濟的因素有很多,光是羅列出這些因素是不夠的,我們還需有定量的分析,知道每一因素的比重有多大。在芸芸因素中,有一個其實並無多大重要性,但卻常被錯誤地或誇大地提出來,就是人力資源問題。有些反華的人甚至是無政治立場的人都有提出,中國出生率低、人口老化,所謂的「人口紅利」已經消失,亦即勞動力已無增長甚至下降,所以中國的經濟增長會受到負面影響,有下行壓力。篇幅所限,我今次只討論人力資源這一因素,看看它對中國的經濟有何影響,其他的因素將來有機會再議。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">人口減少 人均收入資源反增</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">中國的勞動力是否在下降?是的。根據《中國統計年鑑》的數據,</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">2021<span lang="ZH-CN">年有</span>7.802<span lang="ZH-CN">億勞動人口,比最高峰</span>2016<span lang="ZH-CN">年的</span>8.069<span lang="ZH-CN">億平均每年下降</span>0.67%<span lang="ZH-CN">。為何勞動人口下降?主要原因是</span>15<span lang="ZH-CN">至</span>64<span lang="ZH-CN">歲的人口在減少。縱觀將來,因為生育率長期低企,勞動人口也不易再次上升。過去</span>2<span lang="ZH-CN">、</span>3<span lang="ZH-CN">年,總和生育率特別低,原因應是在新冠疫情下,大家都暫時不敢生小孩,不用悲觀地認為生育率將來也會這麼低。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">勞動力下降對經濟是好事還是壞事?若其他因素不變,光是少了勞動力,本地生產總值(</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">GDP<span lang="ZH-CN">)產值確會受負面影響。我曾使用普林斯頓大學教授鄒至莊所估算的中國經濟生產函數,計算出上述提到的勞動力平均每年減少</span>0.67%<span lang="ZH-CN">,在其他因素不變的條件下,會把</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-CN">的增長率壓低</span>0.27<span lang="ZH-CN">個百分點。但因為人口(或勞動力)減少了,人均所得反而可增加,每年人均收入可因此上升</span>0.4%<span lang="ZH-CN">。人口減少可以促使每人擁有的資源及收入增加是好事,不明白為何不少人都只是負面地看待人口減少。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">其實勞動人口減少也不見得真的意味着總體</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">GDP<span lang="ZH-CN">下降,就算科技毫無寸進,社會的資本也無積累,我們也不能忽略中國的人力資源同時有</span>3<span lang="ZH-CN">個變化在發生。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">城鎮化健康教育 添勞動力質量</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">第一個變化是人口城鎮化的趨勢會繼續下去。城鎮化有何好處?人力資源從農村移居城市後,因環境的變化有利生產,他們的產值會大為提高。據中國的數據,城鎮人口的人均產值在</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">2021<span lang="ZH-CN">年是農村的</span>2.5<span lang="ZH-CN">倍。</span>2021<span lang="ZH-CN">年,中國城鎮人口是</span>9.143<span lang="ZH-CN">億人,與過去</span>10<span lang="ZH-CN">年相比,平均每年上升</span>2.72%<span lang="ZH-CN">。這麼迅速的城鎮化,可大大提高整體勞動人口的生產力,其作用已遠可抵銷掉上述</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-CN">增長率被削掉</span>0.27%<span lang="ZH-CN">的影響。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">第二個變化是勞動人口的健康有長足的進步。在經濟學中,健康被視作人力資本的一部分,沒有健康,哪能有多少生產力?反之,人民健康愈好,個個精神抖擻,生產力自會上升。只要看看新冠期間,各國經濟受到的打擊便知健康即財富。中國不久前還只是個發展中國家,</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">1990<span lang="ZH-CN">年人均預期壽命是</span>68.55<span lang="ZH-CN">歲,到了</span>2020<span lang="ZH-CN">年卻已暴增至</span>77.93<span lang="ZH-CN">歲。壽命的延長意味着健康有長足進步,它對經濟的定量影響仍需估算,但肯定對勞動人口的下降有強大的對冲作用。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">第三個變化是教育的迅猛發展。在</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">1997<span lang="ZH-CN">年,中國高校招生人數還只是</span>95<span lang="ZH-CN">萬人,今天卻是過了</span>1,000<span lang="ZH-CN">萬!</span>2021<span lang="ZH-CN">年,中國共有接近</span>2.5<span lang="ZH-CN">億的人口受過高等院校的教育,幾乎是美國的兩倍。中國近年科技進步神速,與人民教育水準的提高密不可分。以現在高等院校的規模看,未來人民的教育程度還處於快速上升階段,勞動力質量的進步,遠大於數量的輕微下降。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">從上述可知,勞動人口的緩慢下降,影響甚微,它的作用遠不及人力資源質量大幅進步所帶來的效果。擔心所謂的「人口紅利」的消失,實乃錯讀中國經濟發展的形勢。「人口紅利」作用輕微,縱然消失了,也被「健康紅利」、「教育紅利」,「城鎮化紅利」等超額地補償回來。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">報 </span><span style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">2023-10-13)</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="background-color: #f4f4f4; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;"> </span> </p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-34062523911738548982023-10-06T08:32:00.003+08:002023-10-06T08:32:53.662+08:00美國對付中國的5柄劍 (雷鼎鳴)<p> <span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美國要窮盡一切力量去遏制中國的發展,已是路人皆見之事。美國為達此目的,工具是手上的</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">5<span lang="ZH-CN">把利劍。這些劍雖都曾經鋒利,無堅不摧,可惜現時都已生了銹,隨時斷裂解體。</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">華為彎道超車 新手機達</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">5.5G<span lang="ZH-CN">水平</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第一把劍是美國的科技。科技決定生產力,軍事實力亦取決於科技。美國當今仍是科技綜合實力最強大的國家,自二次大戰後接收了世界多國的頂尖科技人才,不但首先發展出核武,派人登上月球,亦操控着互聯網,其超級電腦可與中國的有一拼之力。但近年科技有不少領域被中國超越,基礎科學研究的頂尖論文數量,已被中國追上。美國在芯片設計及生產上有先行者的優勢,在全球經濟一體化的環境中,中國認為從美國及其他國家進口芯片更加便宜,過往便不大發展這行業,以致今天美國可利用中國這短板來卡脖子,這的確在短期內對中國造成相當困擾。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">但中國人民的創造力及意志力似已被動員起來,在多個科技領域上升的力量勢不可擋。美國政府極怕華為,有人認為是因為未來的通訊是靠人造衛星,不再是互聯網。而人造衛星訊號在室內收不到,地上需要</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">5G<span lang="ZH-CN">或更先進的技術連接。有了華為,美國便難以控制未來的通訊科技,所以一定要莫須有地弄死華為。但出乎美國政府及香港黃黑分子意料的,是華為不但弄不死,還彎道超車,新出手機被不少人視作到達</span>5.5G<span lang="ZH-CN">水平,而且在沒有</span>EUV<span lang="ZH-CN">光刻機的條件下,中國造得出</span>7<span lang="ZH-CN">納米或更先進的芯片。不用多久,中國大有可能大量生產最先進芯片,並以白菜價出售。一旦到此階段,今天西方國家中不少著名的科技公司,恐怕競爭不住要倒閉了。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美元強損生產力 更難脫離華貨</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第二把劍是經濟戰。特朗普(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Donald
Trump<span lang="ZH-CN">)發動的貿易戰,正如有道行的經濟學家所一早預料,不但不會達到目的,且會自殘,這幾年的事實亦證明了此定論。拜登(</span>Joe
Biden<span lang="ZH-CN">)政府的愚蠢在於還是看不到這點,貿易戰還要硬撑下去,部分的通脹亦由此而來。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">更嚴重的是,美國政府開支無度,欠下</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">33<span lang="ZH-CN">萬億美元巨債,政府屢受財困停擺威脅,使人看不到前面的曙光。財困下要多印鈔票,這自動推高通脹,通脹一上,再加上不能不增加借貸,便惟有加息。息口上升,美元當然轉強,這倒不是甚麼好事。日圓滙率</span>30<span lang="ZH-CN">多年前被迫上升,日本經濟便倒楣足幾十年。強美元等於美國商品或服務在國際市場中十分昂貴,美國商品容易乏人問津,這會倒過來打擊美國的生產力。市場萎縮,賺不了錢,公司的科研自會缺乏經費,科研也就比不上別人了。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">本來美國也可能用金融工具威脅中國,但在俄烏戰爭中,美國及其盟友制裁俄羅斯時八寶盡出,卻仍無法撼動俄羅斯,反而暴露了自己的底牌,使中國能及早預防,美國的制裁牌未出,恐怕已成廢招了。在美國無法不加息的環境下,中國似尚暗藏一招,便是不但不跟隨加息,還反其道而行,息口有下調傾向,這使人民幣滙率向下。中國沒有追求高滙率的表面風光,滙率下調有利出口,減少入口,對美國產品的競爭力構成重大的威脅。這對美國的生產商不是好消息,但美國人民可買到價廉物美的中國貨,更脫離不了倚賴中國。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第三把劍是外交。國務卿布林肯(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Antony
Blinken<span lang="ZH-CN">)可能是美國最忙碌的官員之一了,美國要到處拉幫結派威逼利誘各國對付中國,但總的效果也只是一般。世界上三分二的國家最大的貿易夥伴是中國,你要他們選邊站在美國一邊對付中國?他們懾於美國的軍事霸主地位,或許不敢得罪美國,最佳的策略便是虛與委蛇。他們並不是美國可靠的盟友。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">當然,也有些國家較為死心塌地跟隨美國。英國脫歐後無依無靠,惟有把自己變成貼身膏藥般貼在美國身上。美國中情局前職員史諾登(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Edward
Snowden<span lang="ZH-CN">)曾揭發美國的監聽無遠弗届,究竟有多少政要被美國政府抓住痛腳,不能不言聽計從,我們不得而知。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美威逼利誘各國抗華 惟成效弱</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第四把劍是媒體資訊戰。這本是西方國家的獨門秘技,實力強大。不過,他們對中國的抹黑宣傳戰早已遭到重大挫敗。西方傳媒在香港及新疆問題上胡言亂語,對更熟悉這兩地實情的中國人民猶如打了預防針,知道不能再相信其假新聞。無理拘留華為副董事長孟晚舟更挑起中國人民對美國、加拿大的憤怒,更加不相信西方媒體的宣傳。不過,此種宣傳對西方政客卻有影響。政客支持下的大量反華宣傳,效果之一便是他們掉進了自設的陷阱,知道反華對美國不利,也不敢不繼續反華,難以自拔。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">第五把劍是軍事。中國的核武的數量不及美國,但已有足夠摧毁美國的力量,雙方互相制衡,核戰打不起來。在常規武器上,中國早已有攻擊美國本土且無法阻擋的力量,一樣使到美國有所顧忌,中美戰爭對美國不划算。更有甚者,是美國根本沒有為與中國開戰在軍事人員訓練上及軍工生產上作出準備。美國知名軍事分析員</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Scott
Ritter<span lang="ZH-CN">便曾指出,美國雖連年征戰,但大都是恃強凌弱,根本想不到自己的航母可以被中國的飛彈炸沉,本土也受攻擊,機場及導彈發射站也會被摧毁,這會對美國的戰略與戰術都大為打擊。軍事上,狹路相逢勇者勝,美國也討不了多少便宜。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報</span> <span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2023-10-6)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1046974252562068762.post-72007792381302001502023-09-29T09:00:00.000+08:002023-09-29T09:00:07.303+08:00華為復仇記? (雷鼎鳴)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">華為秋季新產品發布會,在孟晚舟回國兩周年一口氣介紹了手機、耳機、平板電腦、電視、眼鏡、汽車、手錶、路由器等多款「遙遙領先」的先進新產品,意義遠超一間公司的產品銷售。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">製造</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">7<span lang="ZH-CN">納米芯片 摸索新道路</span></span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">有些人或許把華為大批大受歡迎的新產品的出現視作「華為復仇記」,但任正非是很有氣度及格局的人,不會用負面思維主導華為的工作。公眾之對華為感佩,我相信是因為看到它在美國傾全國之力並威逼其他國家一起封殺之下,仍能頑強奮戰,自強不息,殺出重圍。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">華為新產品最使世界震撼的,顯然是其搭載</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">7<span lang="ZH-CN">納米芯片的</span>Mate 60 Pro<span lang="ZH-CN">。眾所周知,美國用盡一切辦法封殺中國的半導體生產,迫使荷蘭政府禁止</span>ASML<span lang="ZH-CN">把最先進的</span>EUV<span lang="ZH-CN">光刻機售給中國,但華為為何還能量產擁有</span>7<span lang="ZH-CN">納米芯片的手機?這對美國是一個謎,美國、日本等國家連忙找人拆解華為的新手機,但總是找不到丁點使用美國技術的證據。華為有了此等突破,再加上其他技術上的進步,例如可以人造衛星通話手機</span>,
<span lang="ZH-CN">昂然進入</span>5.5G<span lang="ZH-CN">階段,及鴻蒙系統的被廣泛應用,華為產品的銷售已連連報捷,財務上已站穩了腳,其技術上的實力也使人感到深不可測。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美國遏制中國科技發展的行動,顯然又打了一場大敗仗。香港年前還有一些自我互相吹捧的所謂「意見領袖」,曾斷言華為必然倒閉,但我相信,這些心靈與腦袋俱殘缺的人,今天仍是不會感到慚愧的,他們並無自省能力。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">華為王者回歸,固然是勵志故事,但更值得重視的是中國在遭到重重打壓下,如何造得出</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">7<span lang="ZH-CN">納米的芯片。造此芯片需要非常複雜的</span>EUV<span lang="ZH-CN">光刻機,在美國施壓下,荷蘭的</span>ASML<span lang="ZH-CN">雖想向中國輸出此種機器,卻是不敢。半導體技術超越我的專業知識,我惟有多請教這方面的多位專家。中國可否自己造</span>EUV<span lang="ZH-CN">光刻機?此路恐怕不好走。此機複雜無比外,尚有多種專利權的保護。據聞中國有所大學在實驗室已能成功做到</span>ASML<span lang="ZH-CN">的激光打靶。但跟着別人的舊路走,不但要交專利費,而且會面對種種人為障礙,更好的方法當然是走全新的路。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">同步輻射加速器 代替光刻機</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">世界的科技界大致都會相信,只要給予中國足夠的時間,中國的科學家總會摸索出新路。這說來輕巧,但在黑暗中摸索,總不如已經見到遠處有一扇門透出一片亮光,為我們指明了方向。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">近日網上傳來消息,說中國的科技人員找到了與荷蘭</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">EUV<span lang="ZH-CN">光刻機全完全不同的路徑,便是利用物理學界早已應用的同步輻射加速器作為光源,代替</span>ASML<span lang="ZH-CN">的激光打靶。我請教過這方面的專家朋友,這個方向完全可行,在業內似乎大半年前已在討論。世界有很多個國家都有此等加速器,它們可作多種用途,例如可用在天文物理和衛星上,用作光刻,已是大材小用,殺雞用牛刀。傳聞東莞長達一里的那個加速器,便可能是專門造給半導體生產的。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">此種加速器是龐然大物,設在史丹福大學的</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">SLAC<span lang="ZH-CN">綫性加速器便長達</span>2<span lang="ZH-CN">英里。它們不可能如</span>ASML<span lang="ZH-CN">的光刻機般可以運來運去,但它們亦有多種優點,例如打出的光比</span>ASML<span lang="ZH-CN">的激光強得多,曝光所需的時間較短,從而節省部分成本。既然有了可行的新方案,相信幾年內中國便可攻克製作光阻及晶圆等技術上的困難,這些遠比造出</span>ASML<span lang="ZH-CN">光刻機容易得多。幾年後成功之時,芯片生產的生态可能全面改變,中國或能以白菜價造出芯片,美國的芯片廠失去了大片市場,收入不足以支持巨額的研究經費,半導體生產技術會停滯不前。有人預測,幾間芯片公司,包括</span>ASML<span lang="ZH-CN">的光刻機廠,十餘年內恐怕難逃倒閉命運。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">美極限打壓 傷得更多是自己</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">但上述只是未來才會出現之事,為何今天華為便有</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">7<span lang="ZH-CN">納米的芯片?朋友猜測,華為芯片的代工廠可能用較低層次的</span>DUV<span lang="ZH-CN">光刻機曝光幾次,把原來的</span>14<span lang="ZH-CN">納米變成</span>7<span lang="ZH-CN">納米,替華為換回了時間。是否如此?暫時似仍是華為的機密。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">華為的突圍而出,其實在中國並非新鮮事。過去,某些科技先進的國家也曾多次封殺中國科技的發展,但中國卻能一一獨力闖出自己的路。原子彈技術曾遭到封鎖的,中國在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">1964<span lang="ZH-CN">年便自主研發,試爆了原子彈。此外,導彈、太空科技、北斗導航、大型隧道鑽機、超級電腦、電動車、無人飛機、人工智能、</span>5G<span lang="ZH-CN">、人造衛星通訊等等,哪一項不是中國自主研發?外面阻力愈大,中國的成功便愈顯得卓越,西方國家的技術壟斷便愈不能維持下去。在華為及芯片問題上,美國的極限打壓,看來還是走不出弄巧反拙、兩敗俱傷的困局,而傷得更多的,恐怕還是美國自己。為何美國政客變得比前更蠢?頗值得我們玩味。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(经济日报 </span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2023-9-29<span lang="ZH-CN">)</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>雷鼎鳴 Francis T Luihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02125808728986649519noreply@blogger.com